The China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center said that this round of adjustments is a structural deleveraging after the single main line of technology is overcrowded. It is by no means a systemic leverage crisis for the entire market; the foundation for mid-term repair has gradually been consolidated. On the one hand, market risk clearance has structural characteristics. Currently, there is no large-scale off-market leveraged capital allocation in the market. Risks are concentrated only on technology tracks such as AI and semiconductors. The value sector has a strong supporting role, and the overall market presents a pattern of “growth squeezes bubbles and stabilizes value”. On the other hand, adjustments are already in the second half. The on-market financing balance declined for 11 consecutive trading days, and marginal selling pressure continued to decline; at the same time, the net weekly inflow of equity ETFs reached a record high, and strong circuits such as optical modules made up for the decline, which was in line with the characteristics of concentrated panic releases at the end of the market adjustment period, and there was limited systemic room for further decline in the index. Looking back, considering that current market pressure mainly comes from internal deleveraging in the technology sector, it will take time to clear out inventory risk, or it may be difficult to replicate the historical V-shaped rapid rebound trend, and the future will focus on repeated shocks and structural differentiation. The bottom confirmed that we can focus on three major signals: the decline in financing balances continues to narrow, core technology assets end to make up for the decline, and favorable industrial policies and fundamental information are once again driving valuation repair.

The China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center said that this round of adjustments is a structural deleveraging after the single main line of technology is overcrowded. It is by no means a systemic leverage crisis for the entire market; the foundation for mid-term repair has gradually been consolidated. On the one hand, market risk clearance has structural characteristics. Currently, there is no large-scale off-market leveraged capital allocation in the market. Risks are concentrated only on technology tracks such as AI and semiconductors. The value sector has a strong supporting role, and the overall market presents a pattern of “growth squeezes bubbles and stabilizes value”. On the other hand, adjustments are already in the second half. The on-market financing balance declined for 11 consecutive trading days, and marginal selling pressure continued to decline; at the same time, the net weekly inflow of equity ETFs reached a record high, and strong circuits such as optical modules made up for the decline, which was in line with the characteristics of concentrated panic releases at the end of the market adjustment period, and there was limited systemic room for further decline in the index. Looking back, considering that current market pressure mainly comes from internal deleveraging in the technology sector, it will take time to clear out inventory risk, or it may be difficult to replicate the historical V-shaped rapid rebound trend, and the future will focus on repeated shocks and structural differentiation. The bottom confirmed that we can focus on three major signals: the decline in financing balances continues to narrow, core technology assets end to make up for the decline, and favorable industrial policies and fundamental information are once again driving valuation repair.