Great Wall Securities: How to understand the impact of the new round of overseas household savings subsidies and the US-Iran conflict?
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Great Wall Securities released a research report saying that with the deepening energy transformation, industrial and commercial savings are expected to become the core development direction in the new stage. On the export side, “household storage recovery, industrial and commercial storage” will become the core theme of distributed energy storage overseas in the future. The US-Iran conflict has led to the rapid installation of distributed optical storage in Asia. The market is expected to enter a new platform and jointly launch a new growth cycle for global distributed energy storage with Europe. This round of energy storage recovery is not simply a recovery in demand. Instead, the business model, competitive landscape, and value creation methods have undergone profound changes at the same time. The competitive logic of the industry has entered a new stage, and channels, systematization, and service capabilities are indispensable.
The main views of Great Wall Securities are as follows:
The details of the policy actually reveal the nature of the demand
Since European gas prices fell and the share of renewable energy increased, overseas distributed optical storage has shifted from residents' demand for energy efficiency to demand for flexibility in power systems. The bank believes that the new round of household storage subsidies is essentially a policy tool for the government to use private capital to increase the flexibility of distribution grids. With the deepening of energy transformation, industrial and commercial storage is expected to become the core development direction in the new stage. Many European countries are participating in flexible grid services through open energy storage, promoting dynamic electricity prices and independent aggregator mechanisms, and gradually diversifying the commercial and commercial savings income model.
“Household storage recovery, commercial and commercial storage” will become the core theme of future overseas distributed energy storage
The bank expects the annual installed capacity of European households to gradually rise from 10.1 GWh in 2025 to 24.3 GWh in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 19.2%. The annual installed capacity of industry and commerce is expected to grow from 5.4 GWh in 2025 to 32.2 GWh in 2030. In particular, it will maintain a impressive growth rate of 50-60% over 26-28 years.
The US-Iran conflict is about distributed energy storage in Asia, just as Russia and Ukraine have energy storage in Europe
The fear of the growing energy crisis has led to a rush to install distributed optical storage in Asia. The rapid rise in penetration rate also represents an acceleration in market education. At the same time, the government side is rapidly accelerating energy transformation. The Asian optical storage market is expected to enter a new platform and jointly begin a new global distributed energy storage growth cycle with Europe.
Risk warning: policy risk, downstream demand falling short of expectations, overseas market expansion risk, supply chain and raw material price fluctuation risk, technology iteration and product substitution risk.