Charter Communications: The Market May Be Underpricing a Turnaround Nobody Expects
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Charter Communications reports before the market opens, meaning Day 0 represents the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | -$61.65 (-25.50%) | $56.71 (23.46%) | -$5.52 (-3.06%) | $12.03 (6.68%) |
| 2026-01-30 | +$14.60 (+7.62%) | $15.71 (8.20%) | +$7.49 (+3.63%) | $12.10 (5.87%) |
| 2025-10-31 | +$2.92 (+1.26%) | $18.69 (8.09%) | -$11.64 (-4.98%) | $17.32 (7.41%) |
| 2025-07-25 | -$70.25 (-18.49%) | $28.18 (7.42%) | -$11.48 (-3.71%) | $13.03 (4.21%) |
| 2025-04-25 | +$38.32 (+11.43%) | $17.76 (5.30%) | +$3.22 (+0.86%) | $12.60 (3.37%) |
| 2025-01-31 | +$8.87 (+2.64%) | $17.80 (5.29%) | -$3.99 (-1.15%) | $8.66 (2.51%) |
| 2024-11-01 | +$38.88 (+11.87%) | $25.68 (7.84%) | +$9.34 (+2.55%) | $14.47 (3.95%) |
| 2024-07-26 | +$52.39 (+16.62%) | $23.01 (7.30%) | +$9.74 (+2.65%) | $16.77 (4.56%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 11.93% | 9.11% | 2.82% | 4.82% |
Charter's post-earnings price behavior has been exceptionally volatile and predominantly negative over the past two years. The stock has experienced an average absolute move of 11.93% on Day 0, with an average intraday range of 9.11%—significantly higher than typical large-cap stocks. Day +1 follow-through has been more modest, averaging 2.82% with a 4.82% range.
The most dramatic moves occurred during the two most recent earnings releases: April 2026 saw a devastating 25.50% decline following disappointing results, while July 2025 produced an 18.49% drop—both far exceeding the historical average and reflecting severe investor disappointment. These outsized negative reactions demonstrate the market's low tolerance for execution missteps given Charter's competitive challenges.
Positive surprises have also generated substantial moves: November 2024 (+11.87%), July 2024 (+16.62%), and April 2025 (+11.43%) all produced double-digit Day 0 gains when results exceeded expectations. The pattern suggests that Charter trades with high beta to earnings outcomes—strong results are rewarded significantly, but misses are punished severely. Given the stock's recent string of disappointments and the 10.67% expected move implied by options, investors should prepare for potentially significant volatility following the July 24 release.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 07/24/26 (DTE 1) |
| Expected Move | $13.15 (10.67%) |
| Expected Range | $110.09 to $136.39 |
| Implied Volatility | 325.16% |
The options market is pricing a 10.67% expected move for Charter's upcoming earnings—slightly below the stock's 11.93% average historical move but well above typical large-cap volatility. This suggests options traders are anticipating significant price action, though perhaps not quite as extreme as the 25.50% decline seen in April 2026 or the 18.49% drop in July 2025. The expected range of $110.09 to $136.39 reflects meaningful uncertainty about the quarter's outcome and the market's reaction.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analyst sentiment on Charter Communications remains divided and cautious, with the consensus rating at 3.17 (Hold) based on 24 analysts. The breakdown shows 7 Strong Buys, 12 Holds, and 5 Strong Sells—a distribution that reflects significant disagreement about the stock's prospects. The absence of any Moderate Buy or Moderate Sell ratings suggests analysts have taken relatively strong positions on either side.
The average price target of $224.05 implies 77.2% upside from the current price of $126.50, though this figure should be interpreted cautiously given the wide range of targets. The high estimate of $435.00 reflects bullish analysts who see substantial value if Charter can stabilize its business, while the low target of $115.00 suggests bears believe further downside is possible if competitive pressures intensify. This $320 spread in price targets—among the widest for any large-cap stock—underscores the fundamental uncertainty surrounding Charter's trajectory.
Sentiment has shown slight improvement over the past month, with the consensus edging from 3.16 to 3.17, though this marginal change hardly represents a meaningful shift in conviction. The stability in Strong Buy (7) and Strong Sell (5) counts, with one analyst moving from Hold to a more positive stance, suggests the analyst community is waiting for concrete evidence of operational improvement before making significant rating changes. The upcoming earnings release will be critical in determining whether this tentative stabilization in sentiment can gain momentum or if another disappointing quarter will push more analysts toward downgrades.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Charter Communications enters earnings in a deeply oversold technical position, with the Barchart Technical Opinion showing a 100% Sell signal across all timeframes—a reading that has remained consistently bearish over the past week and month. This unanimous negative signal reflects the stock's severe downtrend and deteriorating momentum heading into the July 24 release.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Maximum bearish signal indicates near-term momentum is extremely negative with no technical support
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Unanimous sell reading confirms weakness extends beyond immediate trading patterns into the intermediate trend
- Long-term (100% Sell): Complete bearish alignment across all timeframes suggests structural technical damage that will require sustained improvement to repair
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is classified as Strong and Strengthening, indicating the bearish trend is not only firmly established but continues to intensify—a particularly concerning setup heading into a high-stakes earnings event.
The stock's position relative to all major moving averages confirms the technical deterioration. At $126.50, Charter trades below its 5-day MA ($128.81), 10-day MA ($129.86), 20-day MA ($133.43), 50-day MA ($136.97), 100-day MA ($173.22), and 200-day MA ($196.26). The sequential decline across all timeframes—with the stock furthest below its longer-term averages—illustrates a classic bearish cascade where each moving average acts as overhead resistance.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $128.81 | 50-Day MA | $136.97 |
| 10-Day MA | $129.86 | 100-Day MA | $173.22 |
| 20-Day MA | $133.43 | 200-Day MA | $196.26 |
The 200-day moving average at $196.26 represents a critical long-term resistance level now 55.1% above the current price—a gap that would require multiple quarters of strong execution and sentiment improvement to close. More immediately, the 50-day MA at $136.97 (8.3% above current levels) would need to be reclaimed to suggest any meaningful technical stabilization. The technical setup is decidedly unfavorable heading into earnings: the stock is deeply oversold with no nearby support levels, all moving averages are in bearish alignment providing overhead resistance, and momentum indicators show strengthening downside pressure. This configuration suggests that even a modest earnings disappointment could trigger another sharp decline, while a significant beat would be needed to generate enough buying pressure to reverse the entrenched bearish trend. Investors should be prepared for heightened volatility in either direction, though the technical damage suggests the path of least resistance remains lower absent a substantial positive catalyst.