WiseTech shares have crashed 73%. Is this the buying opportunity of the decade?

It's been another painful session for investors in WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares.

The logistics software company's shares tumbled 7% on Thursday to $31.48. That leaves the stock down almost 73% over the past year and close to $90 below its peak.

After such a dramatic collapse, investors are asking an obvious question: could WiseTech shares really recover from here?

Why the shares have crashed

The sell-off hasn't been driven by a collapse in demand.

WiseTech's flagship CargoWise platform remains one of the world's leading logistics software solutions, used by freight forwarders, customs brokers, and supply chain operators globally. The business continues to benefit from the long-term shift towards digitising global trade.

Instead, governance concerns have weighed heavily on sentiment. Questions surrounding founder and executive chairman Richard White first emerged late last year and have continued to overshadow the company's operational performance.

More recently, media reports that the Australian Federal Police is investigating White over alleged trafficking matters have added fresh uncertainty.

WiseTech responded by stating the reported investigation relates to White in his personal capacity.

Results could be a turning point

The next major catalyst arrives with WiseTech's FY26 results next month.

Earlier this year, management reaffirmed guidance for revenue of US$1.39 billion to US$1.44 billion, representing growth of 79% to 85%.

The company also expects EBITDA of US$550 million to US$585 million, up between 44% and 53% on FY25.

If WiseTech meets or exceeds those targets, investors in WiseTech shares may start shifting their focus back to the company's underlying growth rather than governance issues.

Brokers still see substantial upside

Despite the collapse, several brokers remain optimistic. Citi recently retained its buy rating, although it reduced its 12-month price target to $52 from $65.65. Even after the downgrade, that implies gains of more than 65% from current levels.

Bell Potter is even more bullish. The broker also has a buy rating and a $71.75 price target, implying the shares could more than double over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter believes WiseTech has largely missed the recent rally in ASX technology stocks because of company-specific headwinds. However, it expects those issues to gradually fade, beginning with the appointment of Raelene Murphy as chair.

Foolish takeaway

WiseTech's underlying business continues to deliver strong growth, but governance concerns have dominated the investment story.

Whether the shares recover will likely depend less on revenue growth, which remains robust, and more on whether management can rebuild investor confidence.

Some brokers believe the upside could be enormous. Even so, after one of the ASX's biggest share price collapses, investors should expect the road to recovery to remain volatile.

The post WiseTech shares have crashed 73%. Is this the buying opportunity of the decade? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has positions in WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended WiseTech Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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