Eni (BIT:ENI) Could Be 57% Undervalued Following Kazakhstan Power Milestone
Eni (BIT:ENI) is back in focus after reporting first industrial electricity production from the 120MW gas unit at Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Hybrid Power Plant, a project combining gas, solar and wind with KazMunayGas.
See our latest analysis for Eni.
The Mangystau milestone comes after a stream of project announcements with partners in Abu Dhabi, Côte d’Ivoire and Mozambique. The stock’s 40.36% year to date share price return and 220.09% five year total shareholder return indicate that positive momentum has been building.
If this kind of energy transition story has your attention, it could be a good time to widen your watchlist with 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
After a 40.36% year to date share price move and a 56.64% implied discount to one intrinsic value estimate, Eni looks cheap on some metrics yet only 8.01% below analyst targets. Is the market’s caution misplaced or measured?
Most Popular Narrative: 9.6% Undervalued
Compared with Eni's last close at €22.97, the most followed narrative points to a fair value of €25.40, using an 8.64% discount rate to frame that gap.
The acceleration of Eni's biorefining and sustainable mobility businesses, including multiple new biorefinery projects and partnerships (e.g., Ares in Plenitude, KKR in Enilive), supports growth in lower-carbon, higher-margin revenue streams. Enhanced market demand and supportive regulatory changes, especially in EU and US biofuels, are likely catalysts for margin expansion and improved return on equity.
Curious how this fair value hinges on modest revenue growth, wider margins and a richer future P/E than today? The narrative connects all three into one tight earnings story.
Result: Fair Value of €25.40 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Eni’s story also hinges on Plenitude reaching cash flow neutrality later than many peers, and on large LNG projects avoiding delays or weaker long term pricing.
Find out about the key risks to this Eni narrative.
Another View on Eni’s Price Tag
The earlier narrative leans on a fair value of €25.40, but Eni’s current P/E of 24.7x paints a tighter picture. It sits above both European oil and gas peers at 15.5x and its own fair ratio of 27.8x, leaving limited room for error if expectations soften.
That gap between market P/E, peers and the higher fair ratio hints at a trade off between perceived quality and valuation risk. The real question is whether you think Eni has earned that premium or if expectations are starting to run ahead of themselves.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If the mixed sentiment around Eni has you weighing both upside and risk, take a moment to review the detail and decide where you stand with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Eni?
If Eni’s story has you thinking harder about where your money works hardest, do not stop here, the next opportunity you like might be one step away.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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