Political stability Malaysia’s trump card

WITH the Johor state elections done and dusted, investors’ attention has now shifted to the upcoming Negri Sembilan state polls.

The outcome of the Johor state election has fuelled speculation that the unity government may call for the 16th General Election (GE16) sooner if there is a change in the Negri Sembilan state government on polling day.

Although the political dynamics in Johor are different than those in Negri Sembilan, as Johor is known to be a stronghold of Barisan Nasional (BN), BN will likely emerge victorious this time, either on its own or via its electoral pact and understanding with the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.

This was clear when BN announced that it will only be contesting 25 out of the 36 state seats, as it makes way for PN to contest the rest.

Out of the 11 seats ceded to PN, four are PN-held seats, while the remaining seven are Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition seats, four of which four were previously won by the DAP.

While BN won Johor in a landslide, taking almost 60% of the vote share, several factors played into its favour, and these are likely to be repeated in the upcoming Negri Sembilan state election.

The major factor in the Negri Sembilan election is the electoral understanding between BN and PN, which removes vote splitting between the two coalitions.

This is even more profound than in the Johor election, where PAS still contested under the PN banner.

In Johor, PAS told its supporters to vote for BN candidates. This formula worked as voters overwhelmingly backing BN candidates, and there was evidence to show vote migration from PN and/or PAS supporters to BN.

Even the MIC benefitted from this shift, winning all four seats it contested in Johor.

Straight fights

In effect, the Negri Sembilan state election is now a two-way battle between BN-PN and PH.

Oddly, PN’s old partner in their coalition, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), is going solo by contesting 24 seats, signalling that PAS is done with its collaboration with Bersatu.

Bersatu contested under the PN banner for the Johor state polls just weeks ago. Looks like PN has effectively replaced Bersatu, with Parti Wawasan Negara under Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin.

On its own, Bersatu will likely be trampled by both BN-PN and PH. This would also mean that the previous two seats won by Bersatu under the PN banner will now be up for grabs.

The composition of seats before the Negri Sembilan state assembly’s dissolution was PH with 17 seats, BN with 14 seats, and PN with five seats, of which three were held by PAS.

It is said that between eight and 10 state seats in the Negri Sembilan elections are “hot seats” and the outcome of these seats could result in a change in the state government.

The bigger picture

Although not official, both BN and PN have cleverly reached an understanding not to contest against each other, but to join hands to wrest the state away from PH.

Both BN and PN, although led by Umno and PAS, also comprise non-Malay-based parties, as from the list of 36 seats to be contested, 13 are non-Malay candidates.

With the battle lines drawn, one can also see that this election is not about race but more about picking the right coalition to lead the state government.

It also shows that while PH is always seen as a mixed party coalition, the combination of BN-PN too is rather similar, as candidates from the two coalitions also represent other minority races.

Under the BN-PN banner, Chinese candidates represent 25% of the 36-candidate list, while Indians make up 11% of the total.

On PH’s front, the number of Chinese candidates too stood at 25% while Indians were slightly more at just under 14%.

Snap polls?

The outcome of the Negri Sembilan state elections will determine whether GE16 will be called sooner rather than later.

It cannot be denied that should BN-PN emerge victorious on Aug 1, there will be added pressure for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar to call for snap polls within the next one or two months, as the unity government’s current political support will likely erode, especially the support from the 30 BN Members of Parliament (MPs).

While on paper it does seem that the unity government still has the support of others, even without the support of BN MPs, the reality is that the support from parties based in Sabah and Sarawak – especially those from Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), with a total of 28 MPs – may shift.

Hence, where the block of MPs from Sabah and Sarawak leans towards is crucial in forming the federal government.

With PN’s 62 MPs, the combination of BN-PN-GPS-GRS alone will bring the total number of MPs to 120, surpassing the 111 needed to form the federal government outright.

While on paper this scenario may result in a change of government, it is unlikely that there would be one.

However, this will add pressure for Anwar to call for an early GE16, as the new configuration and political alignment after GE16 may change.

The winning formula for the Negri Sembilan state elections could also mean the same formula could be used in GE16, and an outright winner is likely, given the strength of the four major parties representing Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak.

What if...

PH wins Negri Sembilan? The result would then mean the political understanding between BN and PN for the Negri Sembilan state elections is a one-off affair and it will be unlikely that the two coalitions will collaborate in future elections.

This would also mean that the unity government’s shelf life will only be exhausted closer to its full five-year term and all bets are off for a GE16 to be called anytime soon.

In a democratic society, while politics is a numbers game, political stability is also required to ensure policy certainty, which is a huge plus for any nation that strives to be a magnet for foreign investments.

Political stability brings confidence to the economy and financial markets. Based on the current scenario, the market perceives the unity government as a vital factor for Malaysia, as it brings together a few major political parties to form the government, providing the much-needed political stability.

It is also likely that should Parliament be dissolved in a short span after the Negri Sembilan state elections in a scenario where the BN-PN seat-sharing formula is seen as a success, Malaysia will also see an outright winner in GE16 under the same electoral pact.

As we manoeuvre the political journey ahead, political parties and coalitions must ensure we maintain Malaysia’s political stability, as that is Malaysia’s biggest trump card.