CITIC Construction Investment: Auto companies' smart driving self-research pattern highlights the long-term value of tripartite suppliers
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the intelligent driving industry is moving from single-product competition to platform-based competition. The three categories of full-stack self-developed vehicle companies, third-party algorithm suppliers, and intelligent driving chip companies each rely on vehicle ecology, algorithm platforms, and integrated software and hardware capabilities to build differentiated competitive advantages. As software-defined vehicles (SDV) continue to advance, industrial value accelerates the migration of industrial value from hardware to software, algorithms, and data, driving chip companies to upgrade to platform solutions, while third-party algorithm vendors continue to improve their competitiveness through cross-brand, cross-chip, and global mass production capabilities. Although the penetration rate of full-stack self-development by leading car companies continues to increase, third-party platforms are still an important path for overseas car companies, traditional car companies, and small and medium-sized brands to achieve mass production of advanced intelligent driving due to thresholds such as R&D investment, closed data loops, and engineering capabilities. As the overall scale of the industry continues to expand, the third-party platform market space will continue to grow, and platformization, globalization, and software-hardware collaboration capabilities will become the core of future competition in the intelligent driving industry.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Third-party algorithm platforms
Open ecosystems drive growth, global mass production space continues to expand, and advanced intelligent driving has entered the large-scale mass production stage. Third-party algorithm platforms have become an important force in promoting the popularization of intelligent driving with open platforms, cross-brand adaptation, and global mass production capabilities. Leading companies such as Momenta rely on mass-produced smart driving and Robotaxi two-wheel drive to continuously strengthen the advantages of data flywheels and algorithm iteration, and partner customers continue to expand to mainstream global car companies. Although car companies' full-stack self-research continues to advance, overseas brands, traditional car companies, and small and medium vehicle companies will continue to rely on third-party platforms for a long time, and industry resources will be further concentrated on leading companies with platform-based, globalized, and large-scale delivery capabilities.
Car companies' full-stack self-research
Scale and data build barriers, and leading advantages continue to strengthen intelligent driving competition. Competition for intelligent driving is being upgraded from a single algorithm competition to a full-stack capability competition covering chips, operating systems, large AI models, electronic and electrical architectures, and closed loops of data. Leading companies such as BYD, Huawei, Geely, Ideal, and Xiaopeng rely on 10 billion R&D investment, large-scale sales volume, and massive data to accelerate the construction of an intelligent driving system integrating software and hardware, forming technology, data and cost advantages. Full-stack self-development will continue to raise the competitive barriers for leading car companies, but due to high R&D investment and complex organizational collaboration, only a few leading companies have the ability to invest for a long time, and third-party platforms will still be an important choice for most car companies to achieve mass production of advanced smart driving.
Platformization of chip enterprises
The value of software continues to rise. The integration of software and hardware has become the core of competition. Software-defined automobiles drive industrial value to accelerate the migration of industrial value to software, algorithms, and platforms. Chip companies are upgrading from a single hardware supplier to an intelligent driving platform solution provider. Companies such as Horizon and Black Sesame Intelligence continue to improve the “chip+algorithm+tool chain+development platform” product system, and software licensing and platform services have become a new driving force for growth. As the demand of automakers shifts from purchasing chips to overall procurement solutions, platformization capabilities, software and hardware collaboration capabilities, and ecological construction will become the core competitive advantages of intelligent driving chip companies to enhance profitability, participate in global competition, and share the increase in industrial value.
risk analysis
The increase in the penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving falls short of expectations; car companies' full-stack self-development accelerates the market space for third parties; the iteration and mass production implementation of intelligent driving technology falls short of expectations; profitability is under pressure due to increased industry competition; overseas market expansion falls short of expectations; the domestic replacement process of smart driving chips falls short of expectations; profit improvements fall short of expectations due to continued increase in R&D investment; there is uncertainty about policies, regulations and autonomous driving responsibility decisions.