Open Source Securities: The total volume of 2026H1 buses will grow steadily, and exports of new energy will accelerate

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that in the first half of 2026, 279,000 buses were sold, +5.9% over the same period last year. Looking forward to the future, with the release of demand for bus renewal in countries along the “Belt and Road” and continued breakthroughs in the European high-end market, bus exports are expected to continue to boom, and the share of new energy exports may continue to increase. Domestic demand growth in the bus industry is limited, mainly driven by the bus replacement cycle, and exports are the core source of the industry's beta. The bank continues to be optimistic about high-quality enterprises with a perfect overseas layout and an improved profit structure driven by the volume of new energy exports.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

The total volume has maintained steady growth, and exports of new energy buses have accelerated

According to the China Automobile Association, bus sales in the first half of 2026 were 279,000 units, +5.9%, with sales volume in China of 195,000 units, or -0.1%; domestic NEV sales volume was 111,000 units, +42.3% year over year, with a new energy penetration rate of 39.9%, compared with +3.8 pct for the whole year of 2025; in terms of large and medium passengers, the first half of 2026 sold 52,000 vehicles, +3.8% year on year; according to the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate significantly outperformed the domestic market in the first half of 2026. Furthermore, the electrification process of overseas buses is accelerating. According to the Bus Information Network, 10,000 new energy buses of 3.5 meters or more were exported in the first half of 2026, +32% over the same period last year. Looking forward to the future, with the release of demand for bus renewal in countries along the “Belt and Road” and continued breakthroughs in the European high-end market, bus exports are expected to continue to boom, and the share of new energy exports may continue to increase.

Regional export differentiation, with the Middle East, Africa and Europe contributing to major increases in exports from large and Chinese customers

The Middle East, Africa, and Europe are the main export regions for domestic large and medium passenger vehicles. In the first half of 2026, they exported 0.5, 1.1, and 0.4 million vehicles, respectively, accounting for 18.2%, 39.6%, and 16.2%; by country, the top five export countries were Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belgium, with export sales of 5865, 3092, 1052, 931, and 695 vehicles respectively.

Yutong Bus has a stable position, Zhongtong Bus maintains a high growth rate, and Jinlong Motor leads the industry in export share

Yutong Bus: Cumulative sales volume of 20,000 vehicles in the first half of 2026, -5.7% YoY, of which 15,000 units were sold, -11.7% YoY, 29.7% market share, and a stable leading position in the industry; it exported 6,642 large and medium passenger vehicles, +13.1% YoY, with an export market share of 22.1%;

Zhongtong Bus: cumulative sales volume in the first half of 2026 was 80,000 units, +31.6% year on year, including 70,000 large and medium passenger units, +32.0% year over year, market share 14.1%; cumulative export of 4,318 vehicles, +23.7% year over year, export market share was 14.4%;

Golden Dragon Motor: Cumulative sales volume in the first half of 2026 was 24,000 vehicles, +6.0% year on year, with sales volume of 13,000 vehicles, +3.8% year over year, market share 24.5%; cumulative export of 8,671 vehicles, +24.2% year over year, export market share 28.8%, leading the industry.

Risk warning: Local bus replacement updates fall short of expectations, increased barriers to export trade, etc.