Fuchs Downgraded to Hold as Berenberg Notes 'Caveats' in Q2 Beat

06:19 AM EDT, 07/27/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg lowered its rating and price target for Fuchs (FPE.F), as analysts noted "some caveats" in the company's second-quarter beat. For the second quarter, the German lubricant supplier reported a preliminary EBIT of 135 million euros, which Berenberg said Monday "handily beat" the Vara consensus expectations of 108 million euros. Consequently, Fuchs raised its 2026 EBIT forecast to between 460 million euros and 480 million euros, compared with its previous 450 million-euro forecast. "However, we believe the beat was largely driven by factors of a temporary nature: 1) base oil supply issues at competitors, including Shell [SHEL.L, SHELL.AS]; and 2) pre-buying by end-customers nervous about lubricant availability owing to the Iran conflict. Temporary overearning in the chemicals sector is, in our experience, invariably paid for later in a way that overshoots market expectations," analysts said. "We were already below 2027 Bloomberg consensus EBIT for Fuchs, but now feel more comfortable in being so: by c5%." Against this backdrop, Berenberg raised its 2026 EPS estimate by 10.9%, reflecting "favorable" foreign exchange movements, higher volumes tied to competitors' raw material supply limitations, and pre-buying. EPS forecasts for 2027 and 2028 were each increased by 1.7%, with analysts attributing the lack of "significant upgrade" to the "unwind of pre-buying effects and weaker demand." The stock was downgraded to hold from buy, with the price target reduced to 41 euros from 45.30 euros.