Pay Shuangxiong Visa (V.US) and Mastercard (MA.US) will face financial reporting tests this week! The market keeps an eye on consumer spending and cross-border transactions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the two major bank card payment network companies released financial reports this week, investors will obtain a new round of data on US consumer spending, which is the main driving force of economic growth. Visa (V.US) will announce financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 after the market on Tuesday, while Mastercard (MA.US) will announce second-quarter earnings before the market on Thursday. Earlier, American Express (AXP.US), which is also a payment network competitor, released disappointing second-quarter revenue data because the number of new cards issued by the company this quarter was lower than the previous quarter.

Since the pandemic, the resilience shown by American consumers has come as a surprise to economists and investors. The US Census Bureau said earlier this month that between April and June 2026, total retail sales in the US increased by 6.4% compared to the same period last year. It should be noted, however, that most of this increase can be attributed to inflation. According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve's real-time inflation forecast data, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index rose 5.10% in the second quarter; in June, the indicator's month-on-month growth rate slowed to 0.2% from 1.0% in May.

According to analysts' average expectations, for the quarter ending June 30, 2026, Visa's adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $3.23, up 8.4% year over year. Meanwhile, the market expects Mastercard's second-quarter adjusted earnings per share to increase 15% year over year to $4.78.

Looking at the scale of payment network transactions, according to comprehensive forecasts, Visa payment transactions are expected to increase 9.2% year over year to reach 3.95 trillion US dollars, but lower than the previous fiscal quarter's 4.36 trillion US dollars; Mastercard's total payment transaction volume is expected to increase 8.6% year over year, reaching 2.87 trillion US dollars, up from 2.70 trillion US dollars in the first quarter.

Additionally, Citigroup analyst Brian Keane said that the cross-border transaction business will be one of the core operating indicators investors need to focus on. Both companies have previously disclosed that in their quarterly earnings reports ending March, the growth of the cross-border transaction business both slowed in April, with Mastercard's slowing even more pronounced. Citi said that Mastercard's cross-border transactions increased by only 2% in the first four weeks of April, while the growth rate in the first quarter was 8%, reflecting the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict, changes in payment portfolios, and Easter and Ramadan schedules.

Keane added that the slowdown in Visa's cross-border transaction growth indicates that “the pressure is mainly focused on the travel sector rather than extensive cross-border transaction activity.” “This structural difference is important because cross-border e-commerce is still growing faster than the travel business and helps reduce the impact of fluctuations in specific travel routes,” he said.

According to comprehensive forecasts, excluding the influence of foreign exchange factors, Mastercard's cross-border transaction fee revenue for the second quarter is expected to increase 11% year over year to reach 3.3 billion US dollars; while Visa's cross-border transaction volume growth based on fixed exchange rates is also expected to reach 11% year over year.

Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch said in a report to clients that for Visa, “Market expectations are already at a high level due to strong performance in the June quarter, but the current situation is more complicated — among the three major factors driving results in the previous quarter (strong value-added services business, better adjusted foreign exchange volume performance, and lower incentive costs), only the advantages of the value-added services business are likely to continue, and foreign exchange transaction volume and incentive costs may turn into pressure factors.” Overall, he expects that as long as investors can correctly understand the current reality and not expect Visa to once again achieve performance that exceeds expectations similar to the second fiscal quarter, the impact of this financial report on Visa's stock price will be limited.

For Mastercard, Frisch expects its second-quarter performance to be “at an intermediate level”, and compared to Visa, performance related to value-added services may be less volatile. For the two companies, Frisch believes that the key factor driving the stock price trend in the next few months will be the subject of artificial intelligence (AI) trading. He said Evercore ISI preferred Mastercard over Visa because Mastercard's relative performance may be superior to Visa later this year.

Other analysts believe that Visa will achieve “business as usual” exceeding expectations, and expressed hope to hear more about AI, stablecoins, tokenization, and intelligent proxy infrastructure during the company's earnings conference call. The analyst wrote, “As far as the business narrative in the conference call is concerned, I expect management to continue to brief investors on its progress in building strategies in the stablecoins, tokenization, and smart payment agents.”