GF Securities: Multi-scenario hierarchical implementation, smart driving industry enters a large-scale growth cycle

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report saying that the autonomous driving industry is at a critical stage of simultaneous evolution of technology, policy, and commercialization, and that the development logic is gradually shifting from early technological exploration to large-scale penetration and commercialization of results. On the technical side, the end-to-end large model continues to iteratively optimize smart driving solutions, superposition core hardware such as lidar and in-vehicle computing power to reduce prices, accelerate the spread of L2+ advanced intelligent driving, and steadily improve the maturity of L3/L4 technology. On the policy side, the domestic autonomous driving classification supervision system continues to be improved, L3 model entry and implementation, and mutual recognition of cross-city qualifications continue to advance, consolidating the compliance foundation for large-scale operation of advanced autonomous driving. On the industrial side, advanced smart passenger car driving continues to infiltrate urban scenarios. The three major L4 commercial scenarios have been implemented in layers, and industry competition has gradually escalated into a full-link capability competition for data, computing power, mass production, and operation.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Robotaxi: The industry compliance framework continues to improve, leading companies take the lead in running the profit model and start globalization

Pilot licenses for hierarchical classification have been implemented one after another in various regions, and mutual recognition of testing qualifications across regions has gradually opened up geographical barriers, but due to security incidents, the pace of operational approval has slowed down. At the technical level, the industry has formed a parallel pattern of multi-sensor integration and pure vision technology routes, and iterative front-loading mass production and hardware localization replacement continue to drive down bicycle costs. At the market level, the commercialization capabilities of leading companies are markedly divided. Leaders such as My Little Pony Zhixing took the lead in achieving increases in bicycle operation profits, order volume and user scale in some cities, and implemented normalized operations in many domestic cities. At the same time, they accelerated the layout of overseas markets such as the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia, opening a new stage of global expansion.

Robotruck: Closed scenarios first verify commercial logic, and the trunk line formation model becomes the optimal solution for implementation in open scenarios

With the advantages of controllable operating conditions, fixed routes, and immediate demand, the closed mining area scenario was the first to break through the closed loop of commercialization of autonomous heavy trucks. As the leader in the unmanned mining truck market, Sidi Smart Driving achieved rapid growth in performance and continued expansion in delivery scale, verifying the cost reduction, efficiency, and safety value of autonomous driving of heavy trucks, providing a mature commercialization model for the entire Robotruck industry. The open highway trunk scenario is subject to complex road conditions and regulatory restrictions. The industry uses 1+N formation driving as the core implementation model, taking into account technical feasibility, commercial economy and regulatory compliance. At the capital market level, there are scarce listing targets for the main line Robotruck. Little Pony Smart's performance is growing steadily, and compliance rights continue to expand. Relying on technology and license advantages, leading the commercialization of the main line, the industry as a whole is gradually moving from scenario pilot to networked and large-scale operation.

Robovan: Clear terminal replacement logic, driven by both policy and cost, ushered in an inflection point of 100,000 units

In the context of macroeconomic policies to reduce domestic logistics costs and increase efficiency, unmanned logistics distribution is included in the core construction direction of the digital intelligence supply chain. Multi-level policies continue to improve traffic and implementation rules to protect large-scale commercial use in the industry. Compared with traditional artificial city distribution, Robovan can achieve nearly 80% cost optimization and has strong commercialization feasibility. Currently, the division of labor in the industry chain is highly mature. Localization of upstream hardware reduces costs, midstream model solutions are iterated, and downstream logistics demand continues to be released, forming a positive industrial cycle. Leading express delivery companies such as SF Express, Zhongtong, and Shentong have accelerated the layout through capital binding, hierarchical procurement, and scenario customization, etc., to promote Robovan's continuous delivery penetration from pilot projects and warehouses to the end of the city's semi-open roads. There is plenty of room for long-term market growth in the industry.

Risk Alerts

Policy and regulatory risks, uncertainty about technology implementation, new technology development and promotion falling short of expectations, downstream demand falling short of expectations, commercial operation progress falling short of expectations, etc.