Huachuang Securities: High drop in chicken prices, rebound at the bottom of chicken fry prices, long-term concerns about the improvement in demand for poultry meat in anticipation of a recovery in consumption
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that on the supply side, there is sufficient supply in the upstream white chicken breeding chain, focusing on the persistence of the impact of the overseas bird flu epidemic on the breeding side and the impact of domestic chicken breeding and the egg production performance of domestic chicken substitutes; on the demand side, the slump in terminal consumption has always been a key factor that suppresses the demand and price of chicken products, and thus affects the profit of the industrial chain; in the context of expanding domestic demand, the bank is expected to see a boost in chicken consumption and still operate at a low level of breeding costs Next, broiler companies are expected to usher in improved profits and Valuation repair. Furthermore, the bank believes that with the continuous development and iterative upgrading of domestic white feather broiler varieties, it is expected that the efficiency gap with overseas breeds in the commercial surrogacy process will be narrowed in the future, and that the share of domestic varieties will continue to increase from a long-term perspective.
The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Chicken & Chicken Seedlings: The price of hairy chicken fell from a high level, and the price of chicken seedlings fell and rebounded
In June, the price of chicken fell from a high level. The average monthly pre-shed transaction price was 3.59 yuan/kg. Chicken prices remained stable for the most part during this month. Prices fell suddenly and rapidly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and operated steadily after reaching the support level of 3.40 yuan/kg in front of the shed. Product side delivery was poor, and butcher companies' inventory continued to be blocked until the limit of tolerance was exceeded, causing the price of fried chicken to drop.
Chicken seedlings prices rebounded from the bottom in June
The average monthly price of white feather broiler chicken seedlings this month is 2.40 yuan/feather. 1) At the beginning and middle of the month, the price of chicken seedlings mainly declined. The main reasons: first, high temperatures affected the fence, farmers controlled density and reduced entry; second, enterprises were chaotic in arranging seedlings, and farmers waited and pressurized prices; third, temporary low price seedlings lowered the price of pre-arranged seedlings; and fourth, weakening chicken dragged down the chicken seedlings market. Under the influence of multiple factors, the chicken seedlings market operated weakly, and the price of seedlings fell one after another. 2) The price of chicken seedlings was mainly due to a slight rebound in late season. The main reasons: first, small farms reduced the production of seedlings and low price supplies contracted; second, large farms stabilized incubation according to pre-arrangement plans; third, some enterprises had a situation of pumping eggs in the early stages due to bearish market conditions; fourth, farmers' willingness to fill up the shelves rebounded after low seedling prices; fifth, the chicken market stabilized to support seedling prices; sixth, poultry breeding companies lost money and took the initiative to raise seedling prices. Driven by favorable impetus, the price of seedlings rose steadily.
Chicken: Chicken prices are rising
In June, the national average price of white feather broiler was 7.398 yuan/kg, +3.04% year over month, -1.88% month on month; the average price of chicken products was 8,910 yuan/ton, +2.56% year on month, -0.22% month on month.
The main countries and varieties introduced and updated this month include AA+, Roth 308, Kebao, and Shengze 901Plus. Among them, MySteel data showed that the monthly AA+/ Roth 308 varieties were introduced 50.92%, the Kebao variety accounted for 34.36%, and the Shengze 901 Plus variety accounted for 14.72%. In terms of ancestral production capacity, the average number of ancestral chicken produced in June 2026 was 1.675,200 units, +14.7% YoY, +2.9% month-on-month; the average reserve ancestral chicken stock was 638,700 sets, -11.3% YoY and -0.5% month-on-month.
In terms of parent surrogate production capacity, the sample site of the Association in June 2026 was 22.917,900 sets of surrogates, -1.1% year-on-year, +0.9% month-on-month; the average number of surrogate chickens kept by backup parents was 165.806 million sets, +6.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The price of chicken seedlings in June was 54.55 yuan/set, and the latest price for the 26th week of '26 was 54.08 yuan/set.
Taken together, profits on the chicken seedlings side and hairy chicken breeding side declined month-on-month. The profit of hatcheries in June was 0.06 yuan/feather, down from month to month; profit from breeding chicken was 0.12 yuan/feather, which dropped sharply from month to month.
Risk warning: the introduction of ancestral chickens from overseas has recovered beyond expectations, outbreaks of domestic breeding epidemics such as avian influenza, declining chicken prices, major food safety incidents, and macroeconomic systemic risks.