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    CITIC Construction Investment: The high growth trend of new energy vehicles in nine European countries is stable and optimistic about the domestic and midstream lithium batteries and overseas supply chains for materials

    Zhitongcaijing·07/28/2026 08:33:16
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    The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that European tram sales are expected to be 5.41 million units in '26, or +35% compared to the same period last year. Germany and Sweden relaunched electric vehicle subsidies in 2026, and Spain replaced the “MOVES III Program” with a new “Auto+” program. The UK, France, and other countries continued to increase sales to the bottom of 26 years. Sales in Britain, France, and Germany started up significantly under policy stimulus, and sales all exceeded expectations year over year. Considering that the nine European countries sold 1.8671 million units from January to June 2026, +36.3% year on year. The bank is optimistic about the domestic and midstream lithium batteries and overseas supply chains for materials.

    CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

    Core ideas

    Nine European countries sold 403,900 trams in June, +44% year over month, penetration rate 37.7%, +8.3 pct year on year, +2.1 pct month over month. Sales performance analysis of major countries: France's sales volume was +68% year over year, sales growth rate was stable year on year under the influence of subsidies, and policy incentives continued to be promoted; Germany started subsidies in '26, and sales increased 60% year on year in June; Britain expanded direct subsidy funding for car purchases in December '25, +32% year on year; Portugal officially launched the second phase of zero emission vehicle purchase subsidies in June. YoY +38% ; Sales volume in Italy was +75% year-on-year, mainly due to the adoption of the supercar subsidy program in October '25. From January to June 2026, nine European countries sold 1.8671 million new energy vehicles, +36.3% year on year. The bank expects sales of 5.41 million European trams in '26, or +35%.

    Industry dynamic information

    In 2026, nine countries sold 403,900 trains in June, +44% year on year, +29% month on month, penetration rate 37.7%, +8.3 pct year on year, and +2.1 pct month on month. From January to June 2026, nine European countries had cumulative sales volume of 1.8671 million vehicles, cumulative year-on-year +36%, penetration rate of 33.8%, year-on-year +7.4 pct. By country:

    1) France: June sales volume was 68,800, +68% YoY, +53% month-on-month, penetration rate 36.4%, month-on-month +1.4pct. High YoY was mainly due to stable year-on-year sales growth due to subsidies, continued promotion of policy incentives, and seasonal factors.

    2) Germany: Sales volume in June was 116,300, +60% YoY, +32% month-on-month, penetration rate 39.2%, and +2.5pct month-on-month. The year-on-year high was mainly driven by the 26-year relaunch subsidy, and the base for the same period was lower.

    3) UK: Sales volume in June was 90,700, +32% YoY, +37% month-on-month, penetration rate +1.4pct month-on-month. In December '25, the government expanded the scale of direct subsidy funding for car purchases, which gradually started in '26, and stabilized at 30% + year-on-year growth since March.

    4) Portugal: June sales volume was 10,900, +38% year over year, +1% month over month, penetration rate of 42.8%, and -0.6 pct month over month. The year-on-year growth rate increased significantly compared to previous months. The main reason was that the government launched the second phase of zero emission vehicle purchase subsidies in June, with a total budget of 10 million euros (the first phase ended in February).

    5) Spain: June sales volume was 29,800, +20% year-on-year, +16% month-on-month, penetration rate was 23.2%, and +0.1 pct month-on-month. The year-on-year growth rate declined somewhat from the beginning of the year. The main reason is that the government has restarted subsidies since April '25 (MOVESIII), and the base for the same period is high.

    6) Norway: June sales volume was 192,000, +7% YoY, +25% month-on-month, penetration rate -0.2pct. The year-on-year growth rate has been weak since '26. The year-on-year growth rate has been weak since '26, mainly due to tax exemptions for electric vehicles starting in '26, and VAT has begun to be levied on some mid-range models, but the sales growth rate has recovered somewhat from the beginning of the year.

    7) Sweden: June sales volume was 205,000, +14% YoY, +18% month-on-month, penetration rate 69.0%, and +2.2pct month-on-month. Sales increased steadily. The government restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies in 26-32, leading to a further increase in the high penetration rate.

    8) Denmark: Sales volume in June was 171,000, +34% year over year, +13% month over month, penetration rate +0.3 pct month over month. There was a sales rush effect in '26. Buying BEVs this year maintained a tax benefit of 40% of the benchmark tax. The tax rate for purchasing BEVs this year is expected to gradually increase until it is at the same level as fuel vehicles.

    9) Italy: June sales volume was 30,600, +75% year over year, +7% month over month, penetration rate 20.7%, month over month +1.7 pct. The high year-on-year growth rate was mainly driven by the adoption of the supercar subsidy program in October '25.

    National policy side

    1) France announced that the ecological bonus, which was originally scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, will continue until December 31, 2026. Low income/middle income/other families can receive up to 5,700 euros (original upper limit of 4,000 euros) /4,700 euros/3,500 euros in bicycle purchase subsidies.

    2) Germany launched the latest electric vehicle subsidy policy in 2026, with a total budget of 3 billion euros. The plan is expected to continue until 2029. It is expected to support about 800,000 electric vehicles, subsidize private consumers to buy or rent new cars, pure electric vehicles with a subsidy of 3000-6000 euros, and a subsidy of 1500-4,500 euros for mixed/extended range vehicles.

    3) The UK provides a direct car purchase subsidy of up to £3,750 for eligible new electric vehicles with a purchase price of no more than £37,000. The bicycle subsidy was increased by £750+ compared to the previous round. The original budget was £650 million. In December '25, it was announced that an additional £1.3 billion would expand the size of the subsidy fund.

    4) The Swedish government plans to restart the car purchase subsidy policy for electric vehicles during 2026-2032, using the “monthly subsidy+one-time reward” dual support model to distribute a monthly climate bonus of SEK 1,300 (about 120 euros) to all eligible car buyers for a maximum period of 36 months; for economically disadvantaged groups, a one-time start-up bonus of 18,000 SEK (about 1,650 euros) for low-income families.

    Tesla impact analysis

    1) In June, Tesla sales in nine countries totaled 41,025 units, +55.6% year over year, +76.4% month on month; market share was 10.2%, +0.8 pct year on year, and +2.7 pct month on month. Car companies other than Tesla sold 362,900 vehicles in nine countries, +42.3% year over year and +25.6% month over month.

    2) Tesla's sales volume in various countries rose year-on-year in June. Among them, sales in Germany/France/UK/Sweden/Portugal/Italy/Denmark/Spain rose year-on-year, to +318%/+130%/+58%/+56%/+43%/+43%/+39%/+6%, respectively; sales in Norway fell -43% year on year, respectively.

    risk analysis

    1) Downstream NEV production and sales fell short of expectations; 2) Raw material prices rose above expectations; 3) Policy support fell short of expectations.