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To own Dassault Aviation société anonyme, you need to believe in the durability of its twin engines of value: Rafale defense exports and the Falcon business jet franchise. The key short term catalyst remains successful delivery of the planned 40 Falcon and 28 Rafale aircraft in 2026. July’s stronger first half and unchanged €8.5 billion sales guidance support that delivery ambition, but supply chain reliability and export execution still sit at the center of the biggest risk.
The most relevant update is the H1 2026 earnings release, showing sales of €4,157.08 million and net income of €361.6 million. This progress puts Dassault almost halfway to its full year sales objective and offers a useful check on how well the current Rafale backlog and the Falcon ramp, including new models such as the 10X, are converting into revenue, while leaving open questions about how persistent cost inflation or delivery friction might affect margins.
Yet against this constructive picture, the risk that ongoing supply chain issues could still disrupt 2026 delivery plans is something investors should be very aware of...
Read the full narrative on Dassault Aviation société anonyme (it's free!)
Dassault Aviation société anonyme's narrative projects €11.5 billion revenue and €1.6 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 14.8% yearly revenue growth and about a €0.6 billion earnings increase from €977.4 million today.
Uncover how Dassault Aviation société anonyme's forecasts yield a €357.71 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.
While consensus focuses on steady execution, the most optimistic analysts were already modeling around €13.9 billion of revenue and €2.0 billion of earnings by 2029, suggesting much faster growth than the baseline narrative and raising the question of how new data like the recent guidance and supply chain concerns might shift those expectations.
Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Dassault Aviation société anonyme - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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