According to the Guosheng Securities Research Report, the formation of El Niño has been confirmed, and the probability of a strong - super level is extremely high. On June 11, 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially announced the formation of the El Niño phenomenon; according to the ENSO probability results recently released in July 2026, this round of El Niño formation is already a highly determined event; at the same time, the probability of a super strong El Niño occurrence from October to December 2026 reached more than 80%, and the strongest impact window for this round of El Niño climate disturbances was concentrated in the fall and winter of 2026. The probability of El Niño's impact on agricultural products varies markedly. Based on statistics from previous El Niño events since 1981: cocoa beans, natural rubber, and palm oil are crops with high certainty; the certainty of reduced production of corn, cotton, and apples is relatively weak; sugar cane, red dates, and soybeans are beneficial varieties in the El Niño climate, and the probability of historical increases in production is high; there is no clear influence trend for wheat and rice.

According to the Guosheng Securities Research Report, the formation of El Niño has been confirmed, and the probability of a strong - super level is extremely high. On June 11, 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially announced the formation of the El Niño phenomenon; according to the ENSO probability results recently released in July 2026, this round of El Niño formation is already a highly determined event; at the same time, the probability of a super strong El Niño occurrence from October to December 2026 reached more than 80%, and the strongest impact window for this round of El Niño climate disturbances was concentrated in the fall and winter of 2026. The probability of El Niño's impact on agricultural products varies markedly. Based on statistics from previous El Niño events since 1981: cocoa beans, natural rubber, and palm oil are crops with high certainty; the certainty of reduced production of corn, cotton, and apples is relatively weak; sugar cane, red dates, and soybeans are beneficial varieties in the El Niño climate, and the probability of historical increases in production is high; there is no clear influence trend for wheat and rice.