Supercar leader Ferrari (RACE.US) raises performance guidelines! F80 turns a limit into profit leverage, and a fundamental repair window has arrived

The Zhitong Finance App learned that as special edition supercars drive the growth trajectory of performance, European luxury sports car manufacturer Ferrari NV (Ferrari NV) raised its profit growth forecast. Due to strong demand for limited-edition models such as the F80 and the more expensive four-seater version of the Purosangue, Ferrari raised its full-year performance guidelines, and the second-quarter results rose rapidly. Driven by strong Q2 results and an upward outlook, Ferrari's US stock ADR (RACE.US) trading price once soared by about 6% before the US stock market.

The Italian luxury sports car manufacturer currently expects the company's adjusted profit data to reach at least 2.97 billion euros (equivalent to 3.41 billion US dollars) this year, a slight increase from previous forecasts. Ferrari's adjusted profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) for the second quarter was approximately 755 million euros, far exceeding Wall Street analysts' unanimous expectations.

Results show that despite a decline in deliveries due to model changes, Maranello-based Ferrari is still capturing larger revenue and profits through scarce limited-edition models. This strategy provided a financial buffer for the company to launch the first all-electric sports car product, Luce, which lacked the dramatic exclusive supercar experience brought by the fuel engine that was the core of Ferrari's appeal.

Due to strong market demand for limited-edition models such as the F80 and the more expensive Purosangue four-seater sports car, Ferrari is creating more value from its emerging power models (including the F80 and Purosangue), and will test its success model by launching its first all-electric vehicle, the Luce.

After the financial report was announced, Ferrari's stock price rose 4.8% in the Milan stock market. The stock has accumulated a cumulative increase of 12% since this year.

Ferrari's current product cycle focuses more on some of its most expensive luxury supercars. The F80, which costs 3.6 million euros, is a hybrid supercar with 1,200 horsepower and limited production of 799 units. Delivery to customers began at the end of last year, and is currently improving the company's product portfolio along with other special series models.

The F80 continues the tradition of rare flagship models such as the F40, Enzo, and LaFerrari, which are only available to a few long-term collectors. Its scarcity and high selling price mean that even a relatively limited number of deliveries can have a disproportionate impact on revenue and profitability.

Ferrari is also creating more value from its first four-door model, the Purosangue. The Handling Speciale version released in April preserves the naturally aspirated V12 engine while adding sharper driving settings, unique decorations, and more opportunities for personalization.

These models reflect Ferrari's business model of becoming one of the most profitable manufacturers in the automotive industry. Combining strictly controlled production and long waiting lists with increasingly expensive derivative models, profits can be greatly increased without increasing sales.

Undisclosed sales of Luce

Ferrari did not disclose Luce's sales. Some media reported this week, citing information revealed by people familiar with the matter, that this year's quota for this model has been sold out.

Luce will test whether Ferrari can extend this business model beyond Ferrari's iconic fuel engines. Its first pure electric car had more than 1,000 horsepower and a four-door, five-seater layout, which also challenged the company: whether it could replicate the appeal and pricing power of models such as the F80.

When Luce was released in May, the market response was not smooth, and subsequent ratings were mixed. The 550,000 euro four-door model was designed with the participation of LoveFrom. The studio was founded by Johnny Ive, a former design director at Apple, who is also a key figure behind products such as the iPhone and iMac.

Ferrari strives to break through cyclical noise with scarcity, and sluggish stock prices have finally ushered in a critical fundamental repair window

This financial report is a substantial benefit and valuation stabilizer for Ferrari's stock price, which has recently been under pressure. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter increased 7% year over year to 755 million euros, higher than market expectations of about 729 million euros; the company slightly raised the lower EBITDA limit for the whole year from 2.93 billion euros to 2.97 billion euros. More importantly, quarterly deliveries fell to 3,366 vehicles due to model switching, but overall revenue still increased 8.4% to 1.94 billion euros, indicating the increase in bike value brought about by the F80, special series models, and individual configurations, which is enough to offset the decline in sales. As a result, the market received the most important proof: Ferrari's profit drivers are still scarce supply, product portfolio, and pricing power rather than sales expansion.

The core concerns about the previous downturn in stock prices — overvaluation, conservative growth guidelines, and the possibility that the first all-electric vehicle Luce may dilute the brand — the results have reduced at least the first two risks. Ferrari's US stock ADR (RACE.US) is currently around $385.69, about 23.5% lower than the 52-week high of about $504.49; while Luce caused Milan's stock price to drop by more than 8% in a single day after its May release.

Today, reports say that Luce, which sells for 550,000 euros, has achieved the sales target of close to 500 vehicles in 2026. In addition, the company's orders are scheduled to reach 2027, which means that electrification has at least not immediately disrupted Ferrari's customer demand and scarcity system. The high profits provided by the special edition fuel and hybrid models also provided a buffer for the company to bear the climbing costs of pure electric R&D, marketing and production capacity.

However, the latest performance and outlook are more like a necessary condition for stock price bottoming out and valuation repair, rather than a sufficient condition for re-entering a unilateral rise. The annual EBITDA guidelines were only raised by about 1.4%, indicating that management is still cautious; the Luce's first-year quota of about 500 cars is still small compared to Ferrari's overall sales volume, and it is impossible to prove that pure electric models alone can replicate the collection value, used residual value, and ultra-high gross profit data of F80 and V12 models over a long period of time.

Ferrari's current most valuable investment logic is not a “recovery in luxury car sales,” but rather that it continues to prove that it is the world's top luxury pricing asset with a car manufacturing case. Financial data and forecasts have raised the basic win rate of the dips allocation, but whether the stock price can continue to reverse depends on strong personalized revenue, stable EBITDA profit margin of about 39%, growth accelerated again after the new model switch, and Luce not harming brand scarcity by expanding production.