LyondellBasell's Earnings Optimism Ignores What Happened to Revenue Last Quarter
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
LyondellBasell typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 represents the first full trading session where investors react to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | +$0.39 (+0.52%) | $4.36 (5.84%) | +$1.05 (+1.40%) | $3.19 (4.25%) |
| 2026-01-30 | -$0.95 (-1.90%) | $4.63 (9.27%) | +$1.25 (+2.55%) | $3.41 (6.96%) |
| 2025-10-31 | +$1.22 (+2.70%) | $2.77 (6.13%) | -$0.15 (-0.32%) | $1.64 (3.53%) |
| 2025-08-01 | -$4.51 (-7.79%) | $4.19 (7.23%) | -$2.52 (-4.72%) | $3.81 (7.13%) |
| 2025-04-25 | +$0.19 (+0.32%) | $2.73 (4.60%) | -$0.72 (-1.21%) | $2.79 (4.69%) |
| 2025-01-31 | -$0.42 (-0.55%) | $3.94 (5.18%) | +$0.60 (+0.79%) | $3.21 (4.24%) |
| 2024-11-01 | -$0.29 (-0.33%) | $3.15 (3.63%) | -$2.37 (-2.74%) | $2.34 (2.70%) |
| 2024-08-02 | -$3.75 (-3.82%) | $3.13 (3.19%) | -$1.83 (-1.94%) | $1.73 (1.83%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.24% | 5.63% | 1.96% | 4.42% |
Historical price action around LYB earnings shows significant volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 2.24% and an average Day 0 range of 5.63%. The Day +1 follow-through averages 1.96% with a 4.42% range, indicating that initial reactions often extend into the second session.
The most dramatic recent move came in August 2025, when the stock dropped 7.79% on earnings day with continued weakness the following session. Conversely, October 2025 saw a 2.70% Day 0 gain. The January 2026 report produced relatively muted action, while the most recent May 2026 release saw modest positive movement. This pattern suggests investors should prepare for potential swings in either direction, with the stock capable of multi-percent moves depending on whether results and guidance align with the aggressive recovery expectations embedded in current estimates.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 22) |
| Expected Move | $4.79 (7.92%) |
| Expected Range | $55.65 to $65.23 |
| Implied Volatility | 50.00% |
The options market is pricing an expected move of 7.92% (approximately $4.79) for the August expiration, significantly higher than the historical average Day 0 move of 2.24% and even exceeding the average Day 0 range of 5.63%. This elevated implied volatility suggests options traders are anticipating a larger-than-typical reaction to this earnings release, likely reflecting the uncertainty around whether LYB can deliver on the dramatic +474% year-over-year earnings growth expectations.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street maintains a "Moderate Buy" consensus on LyondellBasell, though sentiment has recently deteriorated. The average analyst recommendation stands at 3.45 (between Hold and Buy), down from 3.55 one month ago. Among the 20 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it a Strong Buy, 2 a Moderate Buy, 9 a Hold, 1 a Moderate Sell, and 2 a Strong Sell.
The consensus price target of $66.65 implies approximately 10% upside from the current price of $60.44. However, the wide range of targets — from a low of $48.00 to a high of $88.00 — reflects significant disagreement about the company's prospects. The high estimate suggests potential upside of 46%, while the low estimate implies 21% downside risk.
The recent deterioration in sentiment, with one analyst downgrading from Strong Buy to Hold over the past month, suggests growing caution as the earnings release approaches. The concentration of Hold ratings (nearly half of all analysts) indicates many on Wall Street are taking a wait-and-see approach, wanting confirmation that the expected earnings recovery is real and sustainable before committing to more bullish stances. The presence of three sell-side ratings (including two Strong Sells) reflects skepticism that petrochemical fundamentals have truly inflected positively enough to justify current valuations.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion currently shows a Sell signal at 8%, unchanged from last week but representing a significant improvement from the 24% Sell reading one month ago. This suggests the technical picture has stabilized recently after a period of weakness.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (Hold): Neutral signal indicates near-term momentum has stalled, with the stock consolidating ahead of earnings
- Medium-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal reflects underlying weakness in the intermediate timeframe trend
- Long-term (Hold): Neutral reading suggests the longer-term trend lacks clear direction
Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is at Minimum with direction at Weakest, indicating a fragile technical environment with limited conviction in either direction heading into the earnings release.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $59.62 | 50-Day MA | $61.28 |
| 10-Day MA | $60.32 | 100-Day MA | $67.53 |
| 20-Day MA | $58.21 | 200-Day MA | $58.13 |
From a moving average perspective, LYB is trading above its 5-day ($59.62), 10-day ($60.32), 20-day ($58.21), and 200-day ($58.13) moving averages, but remains below its 50-day ($61.28) and 100-day ($67.53) averages. This mixed picture — with the stock above short-term and long-term averages but below intermediate-term levels — reflects a stock attempting to stabilize after a prolonged decline from higher levels earlier in the year. The current price of $60.44 sits in a technical no-man's land, with resistance at the 50-day average just overhead and support from the 20-day and 200-day averages below. The overall technical setup is cautionary rather than supportive, suggesting the stock needs a strong earnings beat and positive guidance to break through overhead resistance and establish a more constructive trend.