Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited (SGX:J36), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its half-yearly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$16b revenue coming in 7.4% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.83 missed the mark badly, arriving some 39% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the consensus from Jardine Matheson Holdings' ten analysts is for revenues of US$32.3b in 2026, which would reflect a small 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 32% to US$5.03. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$32.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.53 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for Jardine Matheson Holdings
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$85.97, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jardine Matheson Holdings at US$95.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$74.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 1.2% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 4.3% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to decline 7.4% annually. While Jardine Matheson Holdings' negative revenue trend is expected to moderate, they are still expected to shrink next year albeit at a slower rate than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jardine Matheson Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that Jardine Matheson Holdings' revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$85.97, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Jardine Matheson Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Jardine Matheson Holdings' balance sheet, and whether we think Jardine Matheson Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.