Intelligent decision-making reference｜Two chains are worth paying attention to

[Editor-in-chief Guan Shi]

Hong Kong stocks have closed their positive line for five consecutive weeks, proving that their stability has been recognized by capital.

The US and Israel plan to launch a “heavy bombing” of Iran this weekend. The US government suggests that citizens from the Middle East region be evacuated; Iran: A comprehensive counterattack plan is in place. However, Trump once again said: he agreed to cancel the attack on Iran. Iran military: Trump says Iran's demand to stop attacks is a “lie.” It's hard to say exactly what the real situation will be. The capital market will keep this option, and gold stocks have been trending strongly recently.

The US non-farm payrolls report for July this Friday is the first complete employment data since the FOMC was put on hold in July. It will determine the pricing direction of the market's interest rate expectations for September. Looking at it now, this factor has little impact on the market.

The benefits released at last week's major conference have limited market stimulus. The central bank held a working meeting for the second half of 2026: continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and plan and introduce pragmatic and effective incremental policies in a timely manner, showing that the policies for the second half of the year are still worth looking forward to. On the upside, technology stocks experienced a major sentiment rebound after an extreme decline. There is a greater chance that the current market view of AI favors the application side. Financial reports from overseas giants show a sharp increase in cloud business and advertising, and TOKEN's price reduction will once again be a stimulus.

Chinese products have captured the top five largest model calls in the world. ByteDance launched the Seedance 2.5 model: generating 30 seconds of high-quality video clips at a time; DeepSeek-v4-Flash official running score report: the cost of an AI single task is about 60% lower than GPT-5.6 Luna. Strong development of models will lead to an increase in demand for computing power.

According to various sources, Changxin Storage LPDDR6 is nearing the end of R&D and verification. The design rate is 12,800 Mbps, which is in line with international first-tier standards, and is expected to be mass-produced and introduced in the second half of the year. This marks another domestic breakthrough in key storage technology, which is good for semiconductor equipment, materials, advanced packaging and other sectors.

The robot news is fermenting. Yushu Technology launched an initial IPO inquiry on August 5; the person in charge of Tesla's Optimus robot personally dropped down: correction, production is 10 million units. Both of these chains are worth watching.

[This week's gold stocks]

China Software International (00354)

In 2025, the company recorded revenue of RMB 17.027 billion, up 0.5% year on year, and service revenue increased 2.3% year on year. Among them: The full-stack full-scenario AI product and service business sales reached 2.0 billion yuan, an increase of 109.2% over the previous year, marking the company's successful transition to a new role as an enterprise agentiAI architect and integrator. Due to personnel optimization and goodwill impairment losses, profit attributable to company owners fell 37.3% year over year to RMB 321 million. The adjusted profit before tax increased by 0.2% year on year, reflecting that the profitability of the company's core business remained stable.

As the Physical part of the “One, Two Wings” strategy, AI Hongmeng's business is positioned as the foundation for enterprise AI to enter the physical world, and aims to provide high-quality data support for AI platforms. Relying on the dual advantages of KaiHongos and Meta (META.US) platforms, the company adheres to the integrated software and hardware development strategy, and is deeply involved in the large-scale implementation of Hongmeng City.

The company is making every effort to promote the development of allmeta, an enterprise intelligent business operating system. AllMeta's product system includes allMetaEcore, allMetaontology, and allMetaAgentic. Through a three-tier system of “foundation, one perception, one execution”, it realizes a dead cycle of data nourishing the body, ontology-driven action, and action feeds back data, giving the enterprise the ability to self-evolve like a living organism and building core competitiveness for the enterprise. The company enters the energy, electricity, and finance industries through allmeta, creates digital employees for customers to adapt to all B-side scenarios, and converts computing power into tokens, thereby upgrading the business model.

In summary, in the future, the company can, on the one hand, open up room for revenue growth by speeding up the expansion of the AI software and hardware business; on the other hand, the company is exploring upgrading the business model to transform computing power into tokens. As a result, the company's future revenue and profit growth room is flexible.

[Industry Watch]

In terms of AI applications, price cuts on the model side are superimposed on new scenarios, and the demand side is expected to expand at an accelerated pace. On the one hand, increasing model capabilities and falling inference costs (OpenAI price reduction+domestic open source is cost-effective) are occurring simultaneously. On the other hand, some organizations have observed two industrial changes:

1. Major manufacturers at home and abroad are collectively betting on Work Agents (General Office Agents). OpenAI promotes ChatGPT Work, Anthropic to unify Chat and Cowork, domestic Byte (Doubao x Feishu organizational structure adjustment+Twitter TRAE), Tencent promotes WorkBuddy, Ali promotes Qianwen Work, and Kimi Work on the Dark Side of the Moon. Work is becoming the definitive direction for the next token consumption after coding.

2. In terms of multiple modes, Byte Seedance 2.5 (30 seconds straight out, 50 full-modal references, native 4K, partially editable, and landed on Zhou Xingchi's IP license) and MiniMax Conch HailuOH3 (7/30 preview, 2K native audio, consistent cross-camera characters) were released one after another. The volume extends from resolution/length to controllable, editable and commercial licensing. Downstream manufacturers such as short dramas, commercials, and video are expected to benefit first.

Hong Kong stocks suggest focusing on Tencent, Ali, Jinshan Software (03888), Huiliang Technology (01860), Shenzhen Intelligent (02723), and Wan Ka One Link (01762).

[Data View]

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of outstanding contracts in the Hang Seng Futures Index (August) was 10,7866, and the net number of outstanding positions was 26,401. Hang Seng Futures refers to the settlement date of August 28, 2026.

The Hang Seng Index is at 25,884 points. The area where the upper bears are concentrated is close to the central axis, and the lower bullish market deviates, and Hong Kong stocks are motivated to go long. The market is re-evaluating the profit prospects of AI data centers, and investors tend to be cautious. The Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates, but the market had doubts about its policy credibility, and US bonds were sold off. The Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index is bullish this week.

[Editor's Testimonial]

The core driving force behind this round of rebound came from cross-market capital rotation. At a time when fluctuations in the global AI hardware market are intensifying, Hong Kong stocks have instead become safe havens for capital hedging fluctuations due to low exposure to technology hardware and weak linkage with overseas cycles. Previously, the trading logic of “abandoning Hong Kong and investing in South Korea” continued to be revised, with short positions being closed and regional rebalancing jointly supported the index; the net inflow of foreign capital had been flowing in for three consecutive weeks and the pace was accelerating, and active capital was shifting from outflow to inflow.

Considering that global active funds are still historically underrated for Hong Kong stocks, there is still room for the process of returning positions to the benchmark. Meanwhile, southbound capital turned into a net outflow this week, which also meant that market differences began to emerge.

Fundamentally, price competition in the Internet industry is slowing down, and the rate of profit decline has clearly slowed down. AI investment is gradually being implemented as a product scenario, and market concerns about capital expenditure efficiency have been marginally resolved; the peak of the lifting of the ban in July has passed smoothly, and the sell-off pressure has been digested ahead of schedule. At the institutional level, on August 3, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange officially implemented the second phase of the minimum price reduction, narrowing the trading price spread, improving the efficiency of price discovery, continuously optimizing the microstructure of the market, and laying a solid foundation for long-term liquidity improvement.

However, the boundaries of the market are also clear. The current sentiment in Hong Kong stocks has returned to above neutral, and subsequent increases will require relay results in the interim report.