Komo: AIA (01299) expects new business value to increase 15% year-on-year in the first half of the year, short-term catalysts are limited

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Motong released a research report saying that AIA (01299)'s stock price performance since the beginning of the year was slightly backward, down 0.3%, up 0.9% from the Hang Seng Index. Currently, it is trading at 1.1 times the 2027 expected stock price for connotative value. The total shareholder return rate is about 4%, raising the target price from HK$112 to HK$118, reflecting the extension of the valuation from the end of 2026 to the end of 2027. The rating “increased holdings”.

The bank expects solid results in the first half of 2026, with a new business value of US$3.26 billion, an increase of 15% year on year, operating profit after tax of US$3.97 billion, up 10% year on year, and an interim dividend of 54 HK cents per share, up 10% year on year, thanks to steady balance sheet expansion and double-digit growth in life insurance sales and cash flow.

However, the bank indicated that AIA's short-term catalysts are limited, and it is difficult to significantly improve the visibility of Hong Kong's offshore-related regulations in the short term. Therefore, before the results for the first half of 2026 were announced, Chinese insurance companies Ping An (02318) and China Life Insurance (02628) were preferred over Chinese insurance companies, as their relative valuation and yield were more attractive.