Warning for another fall in Q3: November or the end of the current cycle

According to Woofun AI, Benjamin Cowen made a qualitative judgment on the current state of the market, clearly stating that the cryptocurrency market will fall again in the third quarter, even though the transaction prices of various digital assets are at their lowest level since 2010. Cowen believes that the market has not yet bottomed out, and short-term downside risks are still significant.

The underlying reason for the downturn logic lies in the double squeeze of macroeconomics and seasonality. The current transaction price of cryptocurrency is only 62% of its reasonable value, which further confirms the undervalued state of the market. However, seasonal patterns show that the third quarter has historically been a period of weak performance in risky assets, compounded by rising bond yields, and the attractiveness of speculative investment decreased due to safer high-return alternatives.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this macro-adverse factor will trigger the next bear market phase within two to three weeks, putting further downward pressure on prices.

In response to the bottom forecast, Cowen emphasized the need to experience a final sharp decline to establish the bottom of the cycle, and the time point is locked around November. He warned investors not to fall to the bottom too soon, as changes in regulatory policies and macroeconomic trends remain uncertain. Both retail investors and institutional investors need to face the extremely high volatility of the market, and even if assets are undervalued, they may continue to fall. Decisions should be based on one's own risk tolerance and investment period, rather than on short-term rebound predictions.

Market complexity reaffirms that cryptocurrencies are affected by multiple factors such as sentiment, liquidity, and global economic conditions, and undervaluation does not mean an immediate rebound. As the end of the cycle may occur around November, investors should prepare for continued volatility and focus on long-term strategies. It is recommended to conduct independent research and consult a financial advisor to address potential losses and uncertainties.