Cinda Securities: Crude oil structural opportunities and tail risks coexist, energy central enterprises provide definitive returns

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cinda Securities released a research report saying that the current crude oil market price fluctuation range is widening, and structural opportunities coexist with tail risks. Despite short-term oil price pressure, global crude oil inventories are at a historically low level (the OECD oil reserve inventory is the lowest since 1990). Combined with the rigid demand from various countries, this will provide a solid bottom for oil prices and limit the risk of a sharp decline in energy stock performance. Under the assumption that oil prices are likely to remain volatile (the bank expects Brent's main force range of 65-85 US dollars/barrel), the energy central companies' high dividend attributes provide a definite return.

Cinda Securities's main views are as follows:

As a result of the war, exports of crude oil from the Middle East were limited and production blocked. Accumulation of stocks in the strait occurred simultaneously with rapid consumption of global inventories, and supply fragility was highlighted

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused crude oil trade exports of about 16 million b/day to be blocked. Among them, the Saudi east-west pipeline and the UAE Abu Dhabi pipeline can be used as an alternative channel to resolve about 5 million b/d of exports. If you consider the IEA & EIA estimated crude oil reserves of 3 million b/d in 26 years before the strait blockade, and the crude oil market basically relied on 2.5 million b/d of other crude oil prices falling 50-800,000 b/day after the strait blockade. Inventory consumption (including commercial reserves) remains balanced, and overall strategy+commercial reserve consumption is 5 to 6 million b/day. Although the recent situation has repeatedly restored the phased traffic of oil tankers, as the conflict resumed, strait flow declined rapidly again, and the fragility of supply and trade channels became prominent.

The geographical situation in the short to medium term may be repeated. Five factors in the medium to long term will push the crude oil market into a new pattern after the war

The current trend of the war between the US and Israel is repeated, but even considering the end of the war, the complete restoration of the strait still faces restrictions such as the time required for demining, the time required to travel to and from export destinations, differences in the order of compliance between the warring parties, the strait toll game, and Israel disturbances, making it difficult to completely return to normal in the short term. Under different scenarios, the recovery volume of strait trade in 2026 is likely to vary widely in the range of 1-10 million b/d. In the medium to long term, the post-war crude oil market will enter a new pattern, mainly driven by five factors: the rigid replenishment and expansionary reserves of oil consumers to form continuous demand support; Iran's ambition to exert long-term influence on strait traffic and obtain economic benefits constitutes a continuous geographical game variable; there is a huge scissor gap between OPEC+ production quota and actual production, and once the geographical barrier is lifted, it will release potential supply shocks; the expansion of UAE production capacity and position adjustments will greatly reduce OPEC+'s marginal supply dominance capacity; the global conventional oil and water oil and water oil tariff increases The system may begin systematic adjustments. With the combination of five factors, the crude oil market will face repairs and refinement, and enter a new stage of more complex and intense fluctuations.

The short to medium term crude oil market is concerned about the end of the war. Medium- and long-term oil prices have huge concerns due to the double influence of the weakening OPEC+ marginal pricing power and the scissor gap between quota growth and actual production decline

Oil price fluctuations in the short to medium term depend on the extent to which actual traffic in the strait recovers: in the case of the breakdown of negotiations, the crude oil market had an inventory gap of about 5.9 million b/day in 2026, and the corresponding oil price performance was 100-120 US dollars/barrel, or even higher. Under the assumption of a stalemate, there is an inventory gap of about 3.1 million b/day in the crude oil market in 2026, and the corresponding oil price performance is 80-100 US dollars/barrel. Under the limited-scope settlement assumption, the crude oil market had an inventory surplus of about 1.7 million b/day in 2026, and oil prices faced significant downward pressure, corresponding to the central range of 65-80 US dollars/barrel. Under the assumption of a complete settlement, the crude oil market has an inventory surplus of about 2.7 million b/day in 2026, and oil prices correspond to the central range of 60-70 US dollars/barrel. In the medium to long term, the withdrawal of the UAE will cause OPEC+ marginal pricing power to weaken, Iran's supply variables to become normalized, compounded by changes in the price system brought about by the restructuring of the global trade pattern, uncertainty in the crude oil market will rise significantly, and oil price fluctuations will become more intense. Furthermore, more importantly, there is a scissor gap between OPEC+ production quotas that have been rapidly restored over the past few months and actual production, which has declined due to the war. Failure to make subsequent adjustments may cause huge concerns to the crude oil market.

Risk factors: 1. Geopolitical factors causing fluctuations in oil prices; 2. Risk of changes in macroeconomic factors; 3. Risk of policy changes.