Schaeffler (XTRA:SHA0) Cuts 2028 Guidance So Is The Valuation Story Still Intact
Schaeffler (XTRA:SHA0) cut its 2028 earnings guidance on 31 July 2026, now targeting sales of €24.0b to €26.0b instead of €27.0b to €29.0b, citing weaker expectations in passenger and light commercial vehicles.
See our latest analysis for Schaeffler.
Schaeffler’s 2028 guidance cut comes after a period where momentum in the share price has cooled, with a 30-day share price return of down 16.61% and a year to date share price return of down 15.01%, even though the 1-year total shareholder return of 49.17% still reflects a much stronger longer term outcome.
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Schaeffler appears to be a substantial business, with €23,332.0m in revenue and broad exposure across mobility and industrials. After the guidance cut and recent share price pullback, the key question is whether the stock still reflects that strength fairly in its current price.
Most Popular Narrative: 22.2% Undervalued
The most followed narrative for Schaeffler places fair value at €9.43 per share, compared with the last close at €7.33. This frames the stock as materially discounted, even before considering the recent guidance reset.
The accelerating mix shift to E-Mobility and hybrid systems, combined with significant order intake (notable book-to-bill strength in HEV) and synergies from the Vitesco merger, is expected to increase scale and drive both revenue diversification and margin expansion over the next few years. Ongoing cost efficiency and capital allocation discipline (synergy realization ahead of plan, shrinking capital employed, and strict capex/workforce management) are set to boost net margins and free cash flow, with additional upside as transformation-related one-offs subside.
Want to see what underpins that bullish shift toward higher margins and a richer revenue mix? The narrative leans on a detailed path for revenue, earnings and valuation multiples that could reshape how you think about Schaeffler’s potential.
Result: Fair Value of €9.43 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Schaeffler’s reliance on internal combustion focused Powertrain & Chassis, along with ongoing restructuring and integration costs, could still disrupt the upbeat margin and valuation story.
Find out about the key risks to this Schaeffler narrative.
Next Steps
The mix of enthusiasm and caution around Schaeffler makes this a good moment to check the facts yourself and act promptly. To see the full breakdown of both the upside potential and the areas investors are worried about, review the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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