Shipping analysts are more cautious than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about whether shipping can resume in the Strait of Hormuz. Bessent said the US-Iran agreement could be reached “today or tomorrow,” but analysts said that currently less than 10 ships pass through the strait every day. According to Kepler data, only 9 ships passed through the strait on Sunday, including only 2 tankers. Crude oil shipments are estimated to remain at 3 to 5 million barrels per day, far below the pre-conflict level of 20 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco said that even if the straits were to be reopened immediately, it could take up to 18 months to replenish stocks.

Shipping analysts are more cautious than US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about whether shipping can resume in the Strait of Hormuz. Bessent said the US-Iran agreement could be reached “today or tomorrow,” but analysts said that currently less than 10 ships pass through the strait every day. According to Kepler data, only 9 ships passed through the strait on Sunday, including only 2 tankers. Crude oil shipments are estimated to remain at 3 to 5 million barrels per day, far below the pre-conflict level of 20 million barrels per day. Saudi Aramco said that even if the straits were to be reopened immediately, it could take up to 18 months to replenish stocks.