JOLTS job vacancies in the US fell to 7.36 million in June, lower than expected, and the recovery in recruitment numbers highlights that the labor market is still resilient

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies in the US declined somewhat in June, lower than market expectations, but the number of recruiters rebounded and layoffs remained low, indicating that the overall US labor market remains stable. Although employment demand has cooled down, there has been no significant deterioration.

According to the data, the number of job vacancies in the US fell to 7.359 million in June, a decrease of 178,000 from the 7.537 million revised in May, and lower than the 7.45 million expected by economists surveyed by the media. The vacancy rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% in May.

From an industry perspective, the decline in job vacancies was mainly concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, wholesale trade, and commercial services. Among them, the number of job vacancies in the healthcare and social assistance industry fell by 147,000, a major drag on the overall decline.

However, corporate recruitment activities have improved. According to the data, the number of recruiters increased by 96,000 to 5.348 million in June, and the recruitment rate increased from 3.3% to 3.4%. The increase in recruitment was mainly driven by the healthcare and construction industries, while the number of recruiters in the leisure and hospitality industry declined for the third month in a row to the lowest level since the beginning of 2025, weakening previous market expectations that the FIFA World Cup will drive employment demand in related industries.

Meanwhile, the layoffs remained stable. The number of layoffs and layoffs in June was basically the same, at 1.766 million. The layoff rate remained low at 1.1%, reflecting the fact that companies still generally prefer to retain existing employees.

Analysts believe that the JOLTS report once again confirms that the US job market is still in a state of “slowing recruitment and slowing down layoffs.” Although enterprises remain cautious in expanding recruitment, consumer spending is still resilient and continues to support corporate employment needs, and the low level of layoffs also means that the labor market has not yet clearly weakened, which will enable the Federal Reserve to continue to focus its policy on controlling inflation.

The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth time in a row last week, but three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, highlighting that internal concerns about the risk of inflation are still heating up.

However, some economists cautioned that JOLTS data should be interpreted with caution, because the questionnaire response rate has declined markedly in recent years, which may affect the representation of the data.

The market is currently watching the US non-farm payrolls report for July to be released this Friday. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the number of new non-farm payrolls in the US to be about 80,000 in July, up from 57,000 in June; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.

However, there is still a risk that the unemployment rate will rise slightly. According to a survey previously published by the World Federation of Large Enterprises, the share of consumers who think “job opportunities are sufficient” fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in July, reflecting a cooling in the labor market.