Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Surging Over 4%! Gold stands at the 4,200 US dollar mark and the price is expected to return to the upward channel during the year (with concept stocks)
The Zhitong Finance App learned that the international gold market is undergoing one of the most important technological changes since this year. On August 5, spot gold surged more than 4% to 4,200 US dollars in one fell swoop. As the price of gold strongly broke through the downward trend line that had continued for several months and regained the key integer mark of 4,200 US dollars/ounce, the market's attention to the medium- to long-term upward space for gold has clearly heated up.
Analysts believe that this round of gold breakthroughs was not simply driven by technical factors, but was the result of a combination of factors such as improved technology, weakening of the US dollar, continued gold purchases by central banks around the world, and adjustments in capital positions. With the gradual release of bearish pressure in the market, if gold can effectively stabilize the area around 4,200 US dollars, it may trigger a new round of short recovery and attract programmatic funds such as CTAs (commodity trading advisors) to go long, thus further amplifying the upward trend.
Specifically, gold first broke through the downward trend line, and the technical side ushered in an important turning point.
Judging from technical trends, after experiencing significant fluctuations in the first half of this year, gold recently showed a clear recovery in the market. Gold has broken through the long-term downward trend line this time, which means that the adjustment structure that had continued for several months may have come to an end. If the gold price can further confirm that the upper support of 4,200 US dollars is effective, it is expected that the upward space will resume in the next phase.
Gold is currently forming a technical structure similar to “breaking through — stepping back to confirm — trend acceleration”. Once the breakthrough is matched by trading volume and capital flow, programmatic trading capital may intervene at an accelerated pace.
It is particularly noteworthy that CTA funds usually adjust positions based on trend indicators. When gold re-enters an upward trend, some of the quantitative capital that previously held net short positions may be forced to close their positions, forming a “bearish market to make up.”
Market sources said that in the past few rounds of the gold market, there has been a similar financial feedback mechanism: price breaks through key technical levels → trend funds increase long positions → short stop losses → capital further drives up the price.
Second, the weakening of the US dollar has become an important support for gold's rise.
The trend of the US dollar is an important variable affecting the price of gold. Recently, market concerns about the US economic slowdown, the Fed's policy shift, and fiscal pressure have heated up, and the US dollar index is operating under pressure.
Historical experience shows that there is usually a clear negative correlation between gold and the US dollar. When the US dollar weakens, gold denominated in US dollars becomes more attractive to non-US dollar investors, and at the same time, it also lowers the threshold for global capital allocation of gold.
The future trend of the US dollar will continue to be an important factor affecting the medium term performance of gold. If US economic data continues to show a slowdown in growth while the market further bets on the Fed's future policy shift, the US dollar may continue to weaken, thus providing continued support for gold.
Third, central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and long-term demand for gold remains strong.
In addition to financial market factors, the continued purchase of gold by central banks around the world is also an important force supporting the price of gold. In recent years, central banks in many countries have continued to increase their gold reserves, driven by changes in the global monetary system, increased geopolitical risks, and diversification of foreign exchange reserves.
Unlike in the past, the rise in gold mainly depended on investment demand. Currently, the gold market is forming a multiple support structure of “central bank demand+investment demand+safe-haven demand”.
Industry insiders pointed out that the central bank's gold purchases have obvious long-term characteristics and will not easily change due to short-term price fluctuations, so they will become an important bottom support for the gold market. In particular, against the backdrop of increased uncertainty in the global economy, some emerging market countries hope to reduce their dependence on the single currency system and improve asset security by increasing their gold reserves. This trend means that even with short-term gold price adjustments, the long-term demand base for gold remains stable.
Furthermore, CTA net shortfall pressure has been released, which may accelerate the market in terms of funding.
In addition to macroeconomic factors, changes in capital are also an important highlight of the recent rise in gold. Previously, during the gold adjustment process, some quantitative funds and trend trading funds gradually increased their short positions, causing the market to form a high concentration of bears. As gold breaks through key technical resistance levels, some short funds may face stop-loss pressure.
According to market analysts, if gold continues to rise and break through more technical resistance zones, the CTA strategy may gradually shift from its previous net position to a net increase, leading to a surge in capital. This kind of capital switch often amplifies trending markets.
Many institutions maintain a positive judgment on the future trend of gold.
Changjiang Securities pointed out that in the first half of 2026, the price of gold experienced three liquidity shocks, once falling below 4,000 US dollars/ounce in late June, but the geopolitical influence slowed in the second half of the year, oil prices and inflation fell, and suppressing factors are expected to ease marginally; high interest rates have already adversely affected US fiscal sustainability. After 10-year US bond yields entered a high range of 4% to 5%, the mechanism of action of interest rate hikes on gold shifted from “opportunity cost suppression” to “credit reverse phagocytosis”, maintaining a medium-term outlook.
CITIC Securities believes that gold prices have fallen rapidly since this year, but gold is still in a big bull market due to the accelerated expansion of the US fiscal deficit, difficulties in bridging geopolitical rift under anti-globalization, and continued support for gold purchases by central banks around the world. Therefore, the current fall in gold prices is only a temporary adjustment in the bull market. The current retracement is close to the historical extreme, and the area around $4,000 per ounce is likely to be at the bottom of this round. Looking ahead to the market, it is expected that the impact of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz on gold prices will shift from suppression to boost. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations. Combined with the sharp rise in US military spending, it is expected that the price of gold will return to an upward channel during the year.
UBS gold strategy analyst Joni Teves predicts that the price of gold is expected to rise further from the current price before the end of this year. In his view, portfolio diversification remains a key driver of gold demand among the broader investor base. Macro uncertainty is still high, and he believes investors are seeking to build portfolios that can remain resilient under various outcome scenarios. This helps explain why demand for gold is strong even when the opportunity cost of holding gold is high.
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Chifeng Gold (06693): The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half year of 2026 of about RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 1.78 billion. Compared with RMB 1,107 billion in the same period last year, it will increase RMB 593 million to RMB 673 million, an increase of about 54% to 61% over the previous year;
Zijin Mining (02899): The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half year of 2026 of about 39.1 billion yuan. Compared with 23.3 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of about 15.8 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of about 68%.