ASX:QAL: Why analysts think Qualitas is 24% undervalued

In a world of geopolitical conflict, macroeconomic uncertainty, and historically expensive market valuations, looking for value has become an increasingly difficult task.

But, according to the consensus view sourced from at least six different analysts, there is one ASX real estate stock that could be 24% undervalued based on its current price.

Qualitas (ASX:QAL) is not your typical ASX real estate stock.

In fact, it doesn’t own any real estate directly at all.

Instead, Qualitas is an alternative investment manager that focuses on real estate. It operates a series of investment funds that are built around real estate private equity, private credit and development financing, amongst other categories. According to the company, around one in every nine development projects in Australia are financed by Qualitas.

What is Qualitas (ASX:QAL) worth?

According to the consensus view formed across six different analysts, Qualitas could be as much as 24% undervalued with an average share price target of $4.23 compared to its current share price of $3.24.

Explore the complete analysis report for Qualitas.

So, what could be the reasons behind this optimism?

The first is Qualitas’ strong growth since it joined the ASX back in 2021.

Qualitas was founded in 2008, just as the global financial crisis helped shift lending in many real estate markets away from traditional banks and towards private credit financing.

In 2009, its funds under management, the amount of capital it had invested in projects that can earn fees, totalled $75 million. In 2021, when Qualitas launched its initial public offering (IPO), funds under management totalled just under $3.0 billion.

As at December 31, 2025, this had further increased to $10.9 billion, 3.6x the total reported in its IPO prospectus and 145.6x since its first full year of existence. This growth was achieved despite a volatile interest rate environment.

The expansion of the business has also been met by widening profit margins, meaning that not only is Qualitas’revenue increasing at a strong rate, but that more of it is flowing down to the company’s bottom line.

At the end of 2025, when Qualitas announced its half-year result, it generated an operating profit margin (before depreciation and amortisation), otherwise known as EBITDA margin, of around 55%. This steadily increased since the same period in 2023, when it reported an operating earnings margin of 45%.

As the company continues to innovate, including leveraging artificial intelligence to help make better sense of data and improve decision-making, the company expects this margin to continue improving with management expecting the company to generate an operating margin (before depreciation and amortisation) of around 60% over the long-term.

Yet, despite it reporting significant revenue and profit growth, not to mention an almost 266% increase in funds under management since listing in 2021, the Qualitas share price is still only around 30% higher than its $2.50 listing price.

Qualitas continues to expect growth in the future. Management announced that it forecasts net profit before tax to be between 13% and 25% higher in FY2026 when it announces its results later this month.

Building a solid foundation?

While analysts expect upside for Qualitas, it can be beneficial to see what other investors think of its prospects. The most followed narrative for Qualitas (ASX:QAL) from the Simply Wall St Community outlines what growth drivers and risks they are factoring in to reach their $4.24 fair value estimate (implying 31% upside).

Of course, analysts are not oracles and can make mistakes. However, many appear to be sharing the bullish outlook, which can be a positive sign, but there are risk factors worth contemplating, such as the recent slowdown in the Australian property market.

Still, given Qualitas’ history of strong earnings growth across different macroeconomic conditions over its 18 year history, not to mention its diverse revenue streams, minimal debt, improving margins and a capital light business model, it is understandable why many analysts and investors believe it could be undervalued.

Disclaimer

This article is paid promotional content, commissioned and paid for by Qualitas ("the Issuer"). The Issuer has paid Simply Wall St a one-time cash fee of $22,500 AUD for marketing services to be provided over a term of Six Weeks commencing 21 Jul 2026. Simply Wall St has maintained full editorial independence over this article, and the Issuer has had no influence over the opinions, analysis, or recommendations expressed. Simply Wall St was provided with the following information by the Issuer in connection with the preparation of this article: a webinar video featuring Qualitas (ASX:QAL) and Andrew Schwartz, dated 10 July 2026. Simply Wall St has no other or prior agreement with the Issuer.

Simply Wall Street Pty Ltd (ACN 600 056 611) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (Authorised Representative Number: 467183) of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 337927). Any advice contained in this article is general advice only and has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should not rely on any advice and/or information contained in this article, and before making any investment decision we recommend that you consider whether it is appropriate for your situation and seek appropriate financial, taxation and legal advice. Please read our Financial Services Guide before deciding whether to obtain financial services from us. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor does it constitute legal or tax advice. Please do your own research before investing, including reading the Issuer's ASX announcements, press releases, and risk disclosures, and any applicable prospectus or offering memorandum. The information in this article was obtained from the Issuer and from publicly available sources; Simply Wall St cannot guarantee its accuracy and assumes no obligation to update it, and prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence.

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Simply Wall St analyst Andrew Legget and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.