AlphaValue/Baader Europe: Novo Nordisk's 'Overly Conservative' FY26 Outlook Revision Leaves Room for Further Upgrades

02:02 AM EDT, 08/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe sees scope for further upgrades to Novo Nordisk's (NOVO-B.CO) revised guidance for 2026. "The Q2 results exceeded expectations, aided by sustained strong uptake for the Wegovy pill (obesity). Consequently, the management upgraded its full-year guidance. Nonetheless, the extent of the upgrade disappointed investors, as it implies an 8% [constant-exchange-rate] sales decline in H2 26. We consider this revised guidance as overly conservative and see a possibility of a further upward revision," according to a Wednesday note. Novo Nordisk management is now forecasting both adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit to fall by 0% to 6%, improving from the prior expectations of a 4% to 12% decline. Meanwhile, the research firm affirmed its buy rating, with a price target of 453 Danish kroner, on expectations that the Danish drugmaker will regain its "fast-growing obesity market leadership" with the Wegovy pill. Still, analysts flagged ongoing challenges in Novo Nordisk's key obesity and diabetes products, adding that market attention is expected to shift to the anticipated 2027 launch of CagriSema. The drug is expected to close the "efficacy gap" with Eli Lilly's (LLY.SW, LLY.F) injectable lineup and help Novo reclaim lost market share, AlphaValue/Baader Europe wrote.