AMP (ASX:AMP) Shares Climb As China Profits Power Capital Returns

AMP stock comes into this result on a tear, up about 52% over three months and closing at A$2.31 on Thursday. The immediate buzz is about profit power. Underlying net profit after tax for the first half rose to A$174m, with China partnership earnings playing a much bigger role and group margins stepping higher.

Short term traders are reacting to the capital returns story, including a fresh A$150m buyback and A$0.03 interim dividend. Longer term investors are more likely to focus on whether this mix of capital light profits and improving efficiency can support those returns over several years.

Is AMP a genuine earnings growth story on sale, or is it simply priced awkwardly between peers and the wider sector? Compare its P/E, profit trajectory and risk profile side by side in our valuation analysis for AMP

H1 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): A$1,376m vs A$1,412m (slight decline)
• Net Income, Excluding Extra Items (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): A$98m vs A$105m (decline)
• Basic EPS (H1 2026 vs H1 2025): A$0.039 vs A$0.038737 (broadly flat)
• Trailing 12 Month Net Profit Margin (Latest 12 Months vs Prior 12 Months): 6.6% vs 6.2% (modest improvement)

Prefer clear visual charts instead of another wall of AMP figures and footnotes? See AMP's valuation story and how the market is pricing its latest earnings at a glance with the full visual breakdown in our company report for AMP.

AMP bull story leans on capital light growth

Bulls argue AMP is shifting toward capital light retirement and wealth earnings, with China partnerships and digital platforms doing the heavy lifting. The A$174m underlying NPAT, up strongly year on year, fits that story because more profit is coming from Platforms, Super & Investments and China, rather than the bank. Platforms NPAT of A$61m with better EBIT margin and cost to income near 53.5% shows the operating leverage investors wanted to see. Super & Investments moving to its first positive net flows since 2017 and A$32m NPAT points to improving franchise health. China partnership profit of A$56m and upgraded 12% to 15% partnership ROI guidance back the idea that Asia is now a meaningful earnings engine. The A$236m surplus capital generation and A$425m planned FY26 capital returns also align with the thesis that AMP can recycle capital efficiently.

Bear case focuses on bank drag and China risk

Bears worry that AMP’s margins are fragile and too reliant on China partnerships while AMP Bank remains a drag. The latest half does not fully remove those concerns. Bank ROE is still weak and management explicitly flags near term earnings pressure from AMP Bank GO transition and capital efficiency actions even though NIM is guided to a flat 1.25%. That supports the idea that the bank is not yet earning its keep. On the other side, China contributions more than doubled to A$56m and dividend payout ratios moved above 40%. This concentration of profit and capital returns in one geography is exactly what critics highlight as a risk if regulation or partner behaviour shifts. The UBS mandate and ongoing review of the bank show AMP is still working through structural questions rather than closing them.

After weak interest cover and concentrated China earnings, are these concerns isolated or early signs of deeper fragility? Review our risk analysis for AMP which shows 1 important warning sign

Stay Ahead With AMP Insights

If AMP’s mix of capital light earnings, China partnership profits and bank restructuring has your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to your Watchlist to track price against fair value and watch how the thesis evolves. Once you own AMP or other stocks, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through noise and focus on the most important updates for your holdings. For a broader view on AMP and its peers, tap into thousands of investor perspectives through the Community. By spotting hidden catalysts and emerging risks early, you give yourself a better chance of staying a step ahead of the market.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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