The US job market is still resilient! The number of jobless claims remained low at the beginning of last week. The market focused on the July Non-Farm Report

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the number of jobless claims in the US remained basically the same at the beginning of last week, falling below 200,000 for the third week in a row, once again highlighting the resilience of the US labor market. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 1 rose slightly to 199,000, lower than the market's general expectation of 202,000; the number of jobless claims for the week ending July 25 was 1.801 million, higher than the previous value of 1.782 million and the market's general expectation of 1.79 million; the four-week average number of jobless claims fell to 198,800 at the beginning of the week ending August 1, 2022.

After rising at the end of May and the beginning of June, initial jobless claims declined somewhat. Most economists consider the previous rise to be noise. Although the growth of non-farm payrolls slowed sharply in June and the non-farm payrolls data for April and May were revised down, economists said that the labor market has not undergone substantial changes and is still in a state of “slow recruitment and slow dismissal.”

Currently, the focus of the market has turned to the US non-farm payrolls report for July, which will be released on Friday. The market generally anticipates that the number of new non-farm payrolls will increase by 83,000 in July, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain low at 4.2%. The strength or weakness of this latest non-farm payrolls data will affect whether the Federal Reserve “stands still” or “continues to raise interest rates” in September.

Notably, on Wednesday evening, the US ADP employment data for July was first released — private sector employment increased by only 44,000, far below market expectations of 70,000; the previous value was also revised down from 98,000 to 95,000. As a “small non-farmer,” ADP data is generally seen as a leading sign of non-farmers. The July ADP data fell far short of expectations, further heating up market expectations that employment would cool down. Despite the slowdown in recruitment, the report shows that the salary growth rate of job jumpers has accelerated to the highest level in nearly a year.

The US labor market remains stable, supported by strong corporate and consumer demand. If the July non-farm payrolls report released on Friday confirms this trend, recent employment trends mean that Fed officials can continue to focus on inflation, which is still high.