Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. Just Beat EPS By 240%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
A week ago, Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.5% to hit JP¥524b. Japan Airlines also reported a statutory profit of JP¥9.09, which was an impressive 240% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Japan Airlines' eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.17t in 2027. This reflects an okay 3.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 17% to JP¥215 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.19t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥212 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Japan Airlines
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,194, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,000 and the most bearish at JP¥2,500 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Japan Airlines' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. Compare this to the 41 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Japan Airlines is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,194, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Airlines going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Japan Airlines has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.