CITIC Securities: Congolese gold export ban may boost copper prices The copper sector is expected to resonate with valuation and performance

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the news of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) copper concentrate export ban may further stimulate bullish sentiment in the copper market and push the copper price to hit more than 15,000 US dollars/ton faster. Under the influence of factors such as cooling expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, frequent mining side disturbances, and the US continuing to siphon global copper inventories, the bank expects the copper sector to experience a resonant rise in valuation and performance, and recommends copper companies with high-quality copper ore assets and a clear production growth path.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Incidents:

According to a report by Reuters on August 6, the latest government order shows that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has banned the export of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate (hereinafter referred to as the “ban”). The order, which was signed on June 29, was jointly signed by the Minister of Mining of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Minister of Foreign Trade, and the Minister of National Economy. The order clearly prohibits the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, and also introduces a new taxation system for mining by-products with important economic value. The export ban came into effect immediately, and the new by-product tax system has a three-month transition period. The order says the Minister of Mines may approve export exemptions for a period of one year for projects in “strategic” situations.

The ban's impact on global copper supply and the operations of Chinese companies is limited.

According to data from the Ministry of Mines of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), in 2025, the country produced 3.485 million tons of copper, including 2,848 million tons of cathode copper, 471,000 tons of copper in copper concentrate, and exported 371,000 tons of copper in copper concentrate. As the largest copper concentrate production project in the region, Kamoa-Kakula's 500,000 tons/year supporting smelter was put into operation at the end of 2025. According to Ivanhoe's announcement, all of Kamoa copper concentrate was processed at its own smelter or local refinery in the first quarter of 2026. According to data from the Ministry of Mines of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), its copper concentrate exports in the first quarter of 2026 were only 18,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 82.3%, or about 0.3% of global copper production. According to various companies' announcements, most of the copper production capacity of Chinese enterprises in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is for wet copper smelting projects (the product is cathode copper), and copper concentrates produced by some fire projects will also be locally smelted into products not affected by the ban, such as anode copper. Combined with export exemption policies, the bank determined that the impact of the ban on the production and operation of Chinese copper companies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited.

The ban may further boost market sentiment and push copper prices to new highs.

Although the bank expects the ban to have limited impact on global copper supply, the copper market is currently at a critical point where supply disruptions are frequent and partial inventories continue to decline. The ban may heighten market concerns about tight supply, and the ban conveys resource protectionist signals such as resource countries strengthening raw material control and seeking an extension of the industrial chain, which will also bring uncertainty to long-term copper supply growth. As of August 5, 2026, LME copper prices closed at 14,150 US dollars/ton. The bank expects this sentiment to accelerate the impact of LME copper prices above 15,000 US dollars/ton.

The copper sector is expected to experience a resounding rise in performance and valuation.

As of August 6, the predicted PE for the CITIC copper sector for 2026/2027 was 12.3/10.5 times (Wind agreed), which is still at the bottom of history. As expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cool down and the macroeconomic pressure on the copper sector allocation eases, the valuations of copper industry companies, which continued to be under pressure in the first half of the year, are expected to recover. At the same time, the recent rise in copper prices has also driven related companies' performance expectations to improve. Copper industry companies are expected to resonate with performance and valuation, driving up the sector.

Risk factors:

The enforcement of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) copper concentrate export ban fell short of expectations; the timing, method, or extent of the US copper tariff increase fell short of expectations; downstream demand fell short of expectations due to high copper prices; and the risk of liquidity shocks caused by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict.