Herbalife shareholders woke up to a harsh verdict. The stock dropped about 9% to US$11.51 on the first trading day after earnings, even though the company delivered its fourth straight quarter of year on year sales growth and reported Q2 net sales of about US$1.3b.
The real shock came on the bottom line. Herbalife swung from a profitable Q1 to a Q2 loss of US$26.3m as a refinancing related debt extinguishment charge hit earnings, even while adjusted EBITDA landed near the high end of guidance. The rest of this report unpacks what that profit squeeze means for the story from here.
Impressed that Herbalife is still posting year on year sales growth but uneasy about a quarter where reported earnings moved into a loss because of refinancing costs? Take a look at our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (49 results).
Prefer clean charts instead of another page of Herbalife figures and footnotes? See Herbalife's full financial picture brought together in one visual view of its valuation through our company report for Herbalife.
The bullish pitch on Herbalife is that digital tools, personalized nutrition and refinancing together reset the company for healthier, more repeatable growth. Q2 gives some support to that view. Four straight quarters of year on year volume growth and a 5.8% constant currency volume lift show the product and distributor engine is at least moving in the right direction, with Asia Pacific and Latin America carrying much of the load. Net sales landed above the top end of guidance, which backs the claim that new product launches and campaigns are resonating with customers.
The refinancing narrative also clears an early hurdle. Net interest expense fell to US$37m from US$54m a year earlier and net leverage sits at 2.2x with a target below 2x by year end. That supports the idea that balance sheet pressure is easing even though reported earnings dipped into a loss because of the extinguishment charge.
Compare Herbalife’s operational progress with what the street is pricing in after a share price drop of about 8.7% on the first session after earnings, and see whether analysts think this growth story still lines up with their targets through the consensus price target analysis for Herbalife.The bearish story argues that Herbalife faces structural pressure from regulation, tougher online competition and a stretched balance sheet. Q2 gives those critics fresh talking points. North America volumes fell about 2% while net sales were slightly up, which fits the concern that pricing rather than true volume demand is doing more of the work. EMEA and China both saw double digit volume declines, which feeds the fear that the distributor led model is struggling in mature and more regulated markets.
Regulatory risk is not quantified this quarter. However, the higher adjusted tax rate of 43.2% and guidance for roughly 35% for the full year point to a less friendly geographic mix. On leverage, net interest expense did fall and net leverage of 2.2x is tracking toward the stated target. That partly undercuts the view that debt is an immediate constraint, even if growth is still leaning heavily on emerging markets.
After interest coverage concerns, shrinking margins and insider selling, you may want to review our full risk analysis for Herbalife which shows 4 important warning signsIf Herbalife’s mix of ongoing sales growth and the recent earnings hiccup has your attention, register for free with Simply Wall St and add it to a Watchlist to track the share price against fair value and watch for a better entry point. Once you are invested, use the Portfolio Command Center to cut through noise and focus on the most important changes to your holdings. For a longer term view, tap into the Community to see how other investors are thinking about Herbalife and similar stocks. This way you can spot hidden catalysts and risks earlier and stay a step ahead of the market.
Fresh ideas can move fast. Some stocks are building quiet breakout momentum while others are dropping onto radars under the radar for now. Do your homework before the crowd and act now.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com