Goldman Sachs: MGM China (02282)'s performance for the second quarter is in line with the expected rating of “buy”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the second-quarter results of MGM China (02282) were in line with the bank's and market expectations. The property EBITDA was HK$2.33 billion, down 5% from quarter to quarter, in line with the market forecast range of HK$2.2 billion to HK$2.4 billion. Excluding the VIP win rate factor lower than the hypothetical theory, the adjusted EBITDA was approximately HK$2.35 billion, down 8% from quarter to quarter and 3% year on year. The bank fine-tuned MGM China's EBITDA forecast for the 2026-2028 fiscal year, with a change of up to 1%, maintaining the target price at HK$16, with a “buy” rating.

The bank quoted management as saying that about two weeks after the World Cup ended, it had re-observed the release of strong backlog demand. Visitors and gaming volume both rebounded markedly on a weekly basis. Over the past one to two weeks, the industry's daily gaming revenue had returned to the level of the first quarter, while MGM's performance outperformed the market. Goldman Sachs estimates that the industry's gambling revenue in July may be close to MOP 21 billion. The year-on-year decline narrowed to 5% to 6%, and 12% compared to June.

Goldman Sachs estimates that MGM's market share has rebounded to about 16.5% in July, up 1.1 percentage points from month to month, and expects the market share to be between 16% and 16.2% in the second half of the year. Assuming that the industry's gaming revenue and promotion environment remain stable in the second half of the year, the quarterly property EBITDA is expected to reach HK$2.44 billion to HK$2.45 billion.