U.S. stock futures were mixed on Friday, as the Dow Jones index slipped and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, following Thursday’s lower close.
Investors are expecting the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July employment report before Friday’s market open, where FactSet estimates total nonfarm payrolls to rise by 97,500 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%. This would mark an acceleration from June’s gain of 57,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, Iran and Oman were continuing negotiations on a proposed framework for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow the two countries more control over the strategic shipping route.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.67%, and the two-year bond was at 4.24%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing a 54.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking the current interest rates during its September meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.07% |
| S&P 500 | 0.13% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.15% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.19% at $770.00, while the QQQ advanced by 0.52% to $718.40.
Sectors such as real estate, industrials, and materials led the losses on Thursday, though energy and health care bucked the trend to close higher.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | -0.85% | 53,885.10 |
| S&P 500 | -0.18% | 7,709.96 |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.057% | 26,348.35 |
| Russell 2000 | -0.58% | 3,001.55 |
Luis Alvarado, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, views the current trajectory of the U.S. stock market and broader economy through the lens of shifting capital demands, particularly surrounding the massive funding needs of artificial intelligence (AI).
While investors historically treat AI primarily as a growth engine for equities, Alvarado emphasizes that funding the necessary infrastructure—such as data centers, power generation, and semiconductor manufacturing—requires immense long-term capital.
This heavy financing need directly competes with large federal deficits and elevated U.S. Treasury bond issuance for investor dollars.
Alvarado highlights that while AI could ultimately boost productivity and long-term economic growth, markets must first finance that expansion.
As a result, rising capital competition could put upward pressure on long-term yields and term premiums. As Alvarado points out, “Investors often view AI as an equity story. Increasingly, it may become a bond story as well.”
“In the months ahead, we believe one of the most important forces shaping bond markets may be the growing competition between data centers and deficits,” he added.
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday.
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.40% to hover around $77.60 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 1.54% to hover around $4,305.90 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.01% higher at the 99.9370 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 0.39% higher at $64,849.82 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed lower on Friday, except China’s CSI 300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indices. India’s Nifty 50, Australia’s ASX 200, Japan’s Nikkei 225, and South Korea’s Kospi indices fell. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.
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