Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) Beat Earnings, And Analysts Have Been Reviewing Their Forecasts
A week ago, Hamilton Lane Incorporated (NASDAQ:HLNE) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Statutory earnings performance was extremely strong, with revenue of US$275m beating expectations by 21% and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.93, an impressive 23%ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Hamilton Lane's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.00b in 2027. This reflects a notable 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 18% to US$7.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$904.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.55 in 2027. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in sentiment following the latest results, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane
Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$130, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Hamilton Lane, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$182 and the most bearish at US$94.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Hamilton Lane's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 23% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 17% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Hamilton Lane to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Hamilton Lane following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hamilton Lane analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Hamilton Lane that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.