The Green Thumb Industries Inc. (CSE:GTII) Second-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that Green Thumb Industries Inc. (CSE:GTII) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to CA$9.60 in the past week. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$307m coming in 2.6% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.02, in line with analyst appraisals. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Green Thumb Industries' seven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$1.23b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 73% to US$0.16 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.13 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
See our latest analysis for Green Thumb Industries
The consensus price target was unchanged at CA$21.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Green Thumb Industries at CA$25.72 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$17.93. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Green Thumb Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Green Thumb Industries.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Green Thumb Industries following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Green Thumb Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Green Thumb Industries going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Green Thumb Industries has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.