Is Gap (GAP) Trading At A 43% Discount To Fair Value?
Gap stock has more than doubled over the past three years, yet the current share price of US$20.52 still sits well below what its Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate suggests. Both the intrinsic value work and market multiples are pointing in the same direction, which puts the focus on whether the recent pullback this year has left a genuine valuation gap.
- Gap has delivered a 113.8% return over the past three years, which means anyone looking at the stock today is assessing it after a strong multi year run rather than from a depressed base.
- The new partnership with Chalhoub Group to expand Gap, Banana Republic and Athleta across the Gulf Cooperation Council may support long term cash flow expectations, while any setbacks in executing that international roll out could weigh on how much value investors are willing to ascribe to those plans.
- Gap ranks as undervalued on most of Simply Wall St's checks, with 5 of 6 tests pointing to a cheaper profile than the current market price implies.
The issue now is whether a roughly 42.9% discount to the DCF intrinsic value gives enough margin of safety for investors who are weighing Gap after its three year share price recovery.
Find out why Gap's 5.2% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Is Gap a Bargain on Cash Flow?
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model used here projects the cash Gap can return to shareholders and compares that to today's share price. Based on the latest twelve-month figures, Gap generated about $1.19b in free cash flow, and the model assumes those cash flows generally grow from this level over time. On that basis, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $35.93 per share.
With the stock trading at $20.52, this implies a 42.9% discount, which suggests Gap may be undervalued relative to its projected cash generation. The recent partnership with Chalhoub Group to expand Gap, Banana Republic and Athleta across the Gulf Cooperation Council helps explain why the model incorporates ongoing cash flows, even if execution risk on that rollout may be one reason the market still prices the shares below the DCF estimate.
On this DCF view, Gap stock currently screens as undervalued compared with its estimated intrinsic value.
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Gap is undervalued by 42.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Is Gap a Bargain on Earnings?
The P/E ratio is a useful way to see what you are paying today for each dollar of Gap earnings. Gap currently trades on a P/E of about 7.7x, compared with an industry average for Specialty Retail of roughly 20.9x and a peer average of around 19.9x. On simple comparisons, the stock changes hands at a lower multiple than many retailers in the same space.
Using Simply Wall St’s fair P/E estimate of about 13.5x, which aims to reflect Gap’s mix of growth prospects, margins, scale and risk, the current 7.7x multiple sits well below that reference point. That gap suggests the market is pricing Gap at a discount to what this framework implies, even after the share price recovery over the last three years.
On the P/E multiple, Gap stock appears inexpensive relative to both sector benchmarks and the fair P/E estimate.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
The Gap Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives for Gap sit between the DCF and P/E work above and the question of what actually needs to go right or wrong for the stock from here. Each one spells out which assumptions on Gap's growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today's price, and it treats that implied fair value as a thesis you can keep referring back to over time. These Narratives sit on Simply Wall St's Community page and give you a clearer way to see how changing facts might support or challenge that thesis.
Gap investors on Simply Wall St are split between a steady recovery story and a thesis that the recent run already prices in most of the upside.
Bull case: 25% undervalued
"Brand reinvigoration strategies (especially at Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic), including product innovation, viral marketing campaigns, and strategic collaborations, are producing stronger customer engagement..."
Read the full Bull Case to see why Gap could be undervalued
Bear case: roughly fairly valued
"As digital commerce continues to accelerate and foot traffic in physical stores declines, Gap's large legacy brick-and-mortar footprint will increasingly weigh on future same-store sales and revenue growth..."
Read the full Bear Case to see why Gap could be overvalued
Do you think there's more to the story for Gap? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
The Bottom Line
Gap screens as undervalued on both the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate and on earnings multiples, which point in the same direction. That discount only matters if Gap can sustain the cash flows and margins implied in those models, including from the Chalhoub partnership rollout. The key question is whether current concerns about execution and the brick and mortar footprint prove too cautious. For now, the crux of the Gap debate is whether the market is correctly pricing in those risks or leaving a genuine value gap.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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