Goldwin Inc. Just Missed Revenue By 8.5%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Goldwin Inc. (TSE:8111) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.4% to JP¥2,075 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥24b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥176 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Goldwin's five analysts is for revenues of JP¥143.9b in 2027. This would reflect a modest 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.8% to JP¥184. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥144.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥189 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Goldwin
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,858, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Goldwin at JP¥3,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,500. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Goldwin'shistorical trends, as the 6.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 is roughly in line with the 7.9% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 8.5% annually. So although Goldwin is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Goldwin. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Goldwin's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,858, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Goldwin. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Goldwin analysts - going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Goldwin is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.