Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9831) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Shareholders might have noticed that Yamada Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9831) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to JP¥674 in the past week. Revenues came in 2.7% below expectations, at JP¥420b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥21.95 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yamada Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.79t in 2027. This would reflect a reasonable 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 125% to JP¥53.94. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.78t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥54.12 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Yamada Holdings
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥661, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Yamada Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥840 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥520. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Yamada Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Yamada Holdings is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yamada Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Yamada Holdings going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Yamada Holdings .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.