Admiral Group plc Just Missed Revenue By 10%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Admiral Group plc (LON:ADM) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest half-yearly results, and the shares gained 3.0% to UK£38.86. Revenues were UK£2.4b, 10% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of UK£1.08 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the twelve analysts covering Admiral Group provided consensus estimates of UK£4.66b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a noticeable 7.1% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 12% to UK£2.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£5.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£2.38 in 2026. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes after the latest results, with a real cut to revenues at the same time as boosting EPS forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Admiral Group
The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of UK£36.36, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Admiral Group at UK£45.16 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£26.20. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Admiral Group shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Admiral Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Admiral Group following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Admiral Group going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Admiral Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.