Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$335m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48, falling short by 3.6% and 7.7% respectively. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's three analysts is for revenues of US$1.43b in 2027. This reflects a satisfactory 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.10, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.46b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.06 in 2027. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
Check out our latest analysis for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage
The average price target was steady at US$44.67even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage analyst has a price target of US$54.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$40.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.8% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.2% per year. It's clear that while Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$44.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.