Green Plains Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
There's been a notable change in appetite for Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 13% to US$14.65. The results were mixed; although revenues of US$446m fell 18% short of what the analysts had predicted, per-share (statutory) earnings of US$0.83 beat expectations by 27%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Green Plains from five analysts is for revenues of US$1.93b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 5.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.4% to US$1.92. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.80 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
See our latest analysis for Green Plains
There's been no real change to the average price target of US$17.86, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Green Plains at US$20.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Green Plains' past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Green Plains' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 12% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 7.6% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.6% per year. Not only are Green Plains' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Green Plains following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.86, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Green Plains. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Green Plains going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Green Plains you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.