The Week Ahead

All eyes on 2Q GDP data

THE spotlight this week will be on Bank Negara Malaysia’s second-quarter (2Q26) gross domestic product (GDP) data, due on Friday, which will offer a clearer picture of the country’s economic performance in the April-to-June period.

Malaysia’s advance estimate showed the economy expanded 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2Q26, up from 5.4% in the preceding quarter.

Bloomberg consensus and UOB Global Economics & Markets Research both expect Malaysia’s economy to grow 5.8% y-o-y, unchanged from the advance estimate and up from 5.4% in 1Q26.

TA Research expects the second-half or 2H26 GDP growth to moderate, while maintaining its forecasts of 4.4% y-o-y in 3Q26 and 4% in 4Q26. The brokerage now expects full-year 2026 GDP growth of around 4.9%, exceeding its previous forecast range of 4.3% to 4.7%.

Meanwhile, the Statistics Department is scheduled to release the June 2026 industrial production index or IPI, unemployment rate and retail sales data.

Bloomberg consensus expects June industrial production to grow 8.8% y-o-y, up from 8.4% in May, while Trading Economics, based on its global macro models and analysts’ expectations, projects industrial production growth of 6.2% by the end of the current quarter.

Regional economic growth

SINGAPORE, Taiwan and Hong Kong are scheduled to release their final second-quarter GDP data this week.

In Singapore, Bloomberg estimates and UOB Global Economics & Markets Research both expect the economy to grow 5.8% y-o-y, in line with the advance estimate.

Taiwan’s economy is expected to remain resilient, with the final reading likely to confirm the preliminary estimate of 12.92% y-o-y, easing from 14.55% in 1Q26.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s final second-quarter GDP is expected to grow 4.3% y-o-y, unchanged from the preliminary estimate but moderating from 5.9% in 1Q26, according to Bloomberg estimates.

RBA decision

THE Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep its cash rate at 4.35% at its upcoming monetary policy meeting. ING expects the central bank to leave rates unchanged.

The view is shared by all 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who also expect the RBA to maintain its cash rate target at 4.35%.

UOB economist Lee Sue Ann also expects the RBA to stay on hold, saying the latest inflation data should allow the central bank to comfortably maintain its current policy stance at the August meeting.