CITIC Securities: Rare earth prices may rise steadily, focus on the rebound in the rare earth sector
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that against the backdrop of index restrictions and falling imports, the rigidity of rare earth supply continues to be strengthened, and the operating rate of waste recycling companies continues to be low due to stricter tax policies. The industrial chain just needs to be replenished and the peak season is expected to drive demand recovery. Emerging fields such as robots, low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up room for long-term demand growth. The rare earth industry supply and demand pattern may continue to be tight. Driven by price increases, rare earth industry chain companies are expected to exceed expectations and continue to recommend the rare earth industry chain strategic allocation value.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Market review: rare earth and magnetic materials sector falls
On July 17, the CITIC Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials Index closed at 3293.0, a weekly decline of 13.2%, a monthly decline of 26.5%, a decrease of 7.3% since the beginning of the year; the CITIC Nonferrous Metals Index closed at 11247.8, a weekly decline of 7.3%, a monthly decline of 19.5%, a decrease of 14.1% since the beginning of the year; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 4529.1, a weekly decline of 5.3%, a monthly decline of 8.2%, a decrease of 4.0% since the beginning of the year.
Price: Prices of light and heavy rare earths rose during the month
According to data from the China Rare Earth Industry Association, as of July 17, 2026, among the main heavy rare earth products, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.405 million yuan/ton, up 0.4% monthly, up 6.4% since the beginning of the year; the price of terbium oxide was 6.855 million yuan/ton, up 15.3% since the beginning of the year; among light rare earth oxides, the price of praseodymium oxide was 755,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 6.1%, an increase of 33.1% since the beginning of the year. Praseodymium Prices continue the upward trend.
Import and export: rare earth ore imports fell month-on-month in June 2026, and overseas rare earth ore prices increased month-on-month
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China's rare earth ore imports were 6014.0 tons, down 27.7% year on year and 6.9% month on month. The unit import price was 20,656.0 US dollars/ton, down 8.8% year on year and 23.9% month on month. From January to June, China's cumulative import volume of rare earth ore was 51981.1 tons, down 7.0% year on year. The cumulative import unit price was 21228.9 US dollars/ton, up 35.7% year on year.
Fundamental outlook: Supply rigidity is increasing, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to improve
Recently, some raw ore separation companies have stopped production, and the operating rate of superimposed waste recycling companies has continued to be low. Combined with the influence of the Southeast Asian rainy season, the rigidity of rare earth supply has been further strengthened. On the demand side, downstream magnetic materials companies are currently mainly in need of stock replenishment. Considering that the demand side is gradually entering the peak season, the bank expects the rare earth supply and demand pattern to continue to improve, and rare earth prices may rise steadily.
Overseas rare earth industry tracking: Overseas incremental projects are generally in the early stages.
According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, 1) Greenland's Iruya rare earth ore drilling started, and the total rare earth oxidation level (TREO) of the project was 2.3%; 2) Ridding Edge's North Carl rare earth mine was approved. The project's TREO grade is 0.5%, which can produce 5340 tons of REO per year; 3) France's Carester will build a rare earth separation plant in Malaysia to treat about 13,000 tons of rare earths per year; 4) Lynas cooperated with South Korea's JS Link to build a rare earth permanent magnet plant in Malaysia with a production capacity of about 3,000 tons; 5) Hastings updated According to the final feasibility study results of the Yangibana rare earth project, Stage 1 calculated an average annual production of 37,000 tons of concentrate, and the estimated cash operating cost was US$20.75 per kilogram of TREO concentrate.
Investment strategy: rare earth prices are expected to rise steadily, focus on the rebound in the rare earth sector
At the policy level, the rare earth management regulations were officially implemented in October 2024, and the industry entered a new era of high-quality and standardized development. According to the official website of the Ministry of Commerce, China will suspend implementation of relevant export control and other measures announced on October 9, 2025 for one year; on the import side, according to the General Administration of Customs, the number of rare earth minerals imported by China declined sequentially in June 2026; on the demand side, downstream demand for new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, inverter air conditioning, wind power, etc. is expected to continue to rise, and emerging fields such as robotics, low-altitude economy, and industrial motors are expected to open up room for long-term demand growth. The rare earth industry's supply and demand pattern may continue to be tight. The rare earth permanent magnet sector is expected to continue to rise. Driven by rising prices, rare earth industry chain companies are expected to exceed expectations, continue to recommend strategic allocation values in the rare earth industry chain, and maintain the industry's “better than the market” rating.
Risk factors:
The industrialization process of humanoid robots fell short of expectations; overseas rare earth development and expansion exceeded expectations; downstream consumer demand fell short of expectations; rare earth prices fluctuated greatly; and implementation of anti-blackmail and environmental protection policies fell short of expectations.