Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Could Be 33% Below Fair Value Following Q2 Loss
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) is back in focus after reporting second quarter 2026 results that showed higher reported sales alongside a net loss, reversing the profit recorded in the same period last year.
See our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust.
The latest earnings release and the recent completion of a multi year repurchase program have come against a weak share price backdrop for Blackstone Mortgage Trust. The share price is down 27.36% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 17.05%. This suggests sentiment has cooled, despite the stock closing at $14.15 after a 1 day share price return of 2.24%.
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Bulls point to Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s completed buyback and the gap to analyst targets, while bears focus on recent losses and weak returns. Which side does the current valuation support as you weigh the risk and income trade off?
Most Popular Narrative: 32.6% Undervalued
Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $21.00 per share versus the last close at $14.15, which implies a sizeable valuation gap that investors are weighing against its recent net loss and weak share price performance.
The launch of a net lease investment strategy, particularly in defensive business sectors, is expected to provide stable cash flows, enhancing the diversification and resilience of the revenue stream, which could support consistent revenue growth.
Analysts are building this fair value on a sharp earnings ramp, shifting margins and a very specific future profit multiple. Investors may be curious which assumptions matter most for Blackstone Mortgage Trust and how they fit together in this narrative.
Result: Fair Value of $21.00 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative can be knocked off course if impaired loans drag on longer than expected or if loan repayments and redeployment remain out of sync.
Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.
Another View on Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s Valuation
The first narrative points to Blackstone Mortgage Trust trading below a $21.00 fair value. On simple sales-based metrics, the stock looks expensive. Its P/S of 6x sits above both the US Mortgage REITs industry at 4.1x and an estimated fair ratio of 2.1x, which signals valuation risk if sentiment weakens further.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment on Blackstone Mortgage Trust split between recent losses and a perceived valuation gap, it makes sense to review the full picture yourself. Move quickly, look through both the concerns and the potential upside, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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