China Galaxy Securities: Global demand for energy storage resonates and moves towards diversified growth
The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that the competitive pattern in the industry continues to intensify, big savings profits are expected to rise steadily in the second half of the year, and household savings and industrial and commercial savings maintain high gross profits. The CR10 for 1H26 global energy storage shipments was 57.7%, down about 2 pcts from 25 years. As energy storage enters the full life cycle competition, the requirements for the cost, efficiency, and stability of large storage systems have risen sharply. Large-capacity batteries, grid-based energy storage, and long-term energy storage are still hot topics of competition in the second half of the year. Household consumer goods attributes are obvious, and the bank is optimistic that manufacturers with brand and channel advantages will increase their market share. On the profit side, if the price of lithium carbonate falls in the second half of the year, the profitability of large storage manufacturers is expected to gradually recover by optimizing the regional structure of shipments and reducing costs. The trend of increasing household storage and commercial storage shipments is smooth, and high profits are expected to be maintained.
The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:
The global energy storage market has entered a stage of diversified growth, and medium- to long-term demand is strong
The positioning of large storage functions is gradually shifting from supporting facilities for new energy sources to key flexible resources with multiple values such as peak frequency modulation, capacity support, backup guarantee, and electricity transactions, and its role in the power system has been further deepened. Household storage and commercial storage are increasing due to increased geopolitical risk fluctuations, and countries' demands to guarantee energy security have been strengthened, and Asia, Africa, and Latin America is now more resilient due to lack of electricity, and the economy of household storage and industrial and commercial storage is prominent. The bank believes that global demand for energy storage is expected to maintain strong growth in the past 1-2 years, and is expected to achieve 480 and 630 GWh of installed capacity in 2026 and 2027, an increase of about 50% and 30% over the previous year.
Big storage
Looking ahead to 2H26, the large storage project has entered a centralized delivery period, and demand is increasing. 1) Domestic: 1H26 installed capacity 21.64 GW/58.2 GWH, same ratio +15%; procurement scale was 96.5 GW/273.7 GWh, +60% year over year. The second half of the year accompanied the decline in lithium carbonate prices, and the capacity price policy continued to be implemented. The high increase in tenders is expected to support centralized domestic storage installation in the second half of the year. The bank expects 250 GWh of domestic installed capacity in 26 years, +30% over the same period; 2) US: Traditional large storage projects have sufficient reserves, and AIDC storage opens up space for medium- to long-term growth. 70GWh; 3) Europe's high percentage is OK The conflict between renewable energy generation and old power grids has intensified, and the phenomenon of abandonment of wind, light, and negative electricity prices is frequent. With policy support, the development of energy storage projects in the UK, Italy and other countries is expected to further accelerate; 4) Emerging markets: Emerging markets such as the Middle East, Latin America, Australia and Southeast Asia are expected to contribute more significant incremental demand along with the implementation of large-scale new energy projects, increased demand for grid stability, and diversified energy storage benefits. The bank expects the world's largest storage capacity to be 400-420 GWh in 26, an increase of about 50% over the previous year.
Household storage and commercial storage
Looking ahead to 2H26, the boom in household storage and commercial storage will spread, and the world will blossom more. Since July, the price of Brent crude oil has continued to rise. Demand for electricity has risen sharply due to extreme heat, and the rise in electricity prices may strengthen the economy of household storage, industrial and commercial storage. The bank is optimistic that market demand will blossom more, and the growth rate of industrial and commercial storage may be higher. Household storage/commercial storage machines are expected to reach 34/29 GWh in '26, +28%/+63% compared to the same period last year.
Investment suggestions: The large storage sector suggests focusing on Sunshine Power, Haibo Sichuang, Artes, Shangneng Electric, Zhengtai Power, etc.; the household storage sector suggests focusing on Deye Co., Ltd., SGX, Jinlang Technology, Aero Energy, Hemai Co., Ltd., Yuneng Technology, etc.
Risk warning: Trade policy fluctuations, increased industry competition, price fluctuations in raw materials and core components, risks of fluctuations in energy storage demand, etc.