Why Did Methanex (TSX:MX) Shares Climb After Its Latest Update?
What Methanex’s latest earnings and production results show investors
Methanex (TSX:MX) has drawn fresh attention after reporting second quarter 2026 earnings that included higher sales, higher net income and increased methanol production volumes compared with the same period a year earlier.
The company reported second quarter sales of US$1,395.26 million compared with US$796.51 million a year earlier. Net income was US$197.83 million compared with US$64.41 million, with basic earnings per share from continuing operations at US$2.56 compared with US$0.95.
For the first half of 2026, Methanex reported sales of US$2,368.98 million compared with US$1,692.98 million a year earlier. Net income for the period was US$184.21 million compared with US$175.70 million, while basic earnings per share from continuing operations was US$2.38 compared with US$2.60.
On the operating side, second quarter methanol production was 2,213,000 tonnes compared with 1,621,000 tonnes a year earlier. For the first six months of 2026, production reached 4,604,000 tonnes compared with 3,240,000 tonnes over the same period in the prior year.
See our latest analysis for Methanex.
The latest earnings news has come alongside a clear price reaction, with Methanex’s share price rising 3.67% over the past day and 11.72% over the past 30 days, while year to date the share price return is 37.43%. Over a longer horizon, total shareholder return is 74.93% over one year and 106.11% over five years. This reflects how the market has rewarded shareholders through both price gains and distributions over time.
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Methanex has already delivered a strong run after these results, yet the valuation still points to a large implied discount. Has most of the easy upside already played out, or is the market still underpricing this stock?
Most Popular Narrative: 15.5% Undervalued
Simply Wall St’s most followed narrative puts Methanex’s fair value at CA$91.07 compared with the last close of CA$76.92, framing the stock as undervalued and tying that view to detailed assumptions about earnings power and cash flows under a 7.66% discount rate.
Methanex expects methanol demand to grow in 2025, driven by traditional chemical and energy applications, which could boost revenues. Increased production at key facilities, such as Geismar and Chile, along with improved operational efficiency, positions the company to capitalize on favorable pricing, potentially enhancing net margins and earnings.
Curious what kind of revenue path and margin rebuild would need to play out to support that valuation gap? The most followed narrative lays out a step by step earnings trajectory and a future profit multiple that is well below many large chemicals peers. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts combine into that CA$91.07 figure.
Result: Fair Value of CA$91.07 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Methanex narrative can shift quickly if gas supply disruptions limit production, or if the OCI integration brings higher costs instead of efficiencies.
Find out about the key risks to this Methanex narrative.
Another view on Methanex’s valuation
Methanex screens as cheap on Simply Wall St’s DCF model, which puts fair value at CA$164.23 per share compared with the current CA$76.92. That suggests a wide gap. Yet earnings have been volatile and recent net profit margins sit at 2.1%, so how comfortable are you with that DCF path?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
The mix of optimism and concern around Methanex is clear, so this is a good moment to review the full picture and decide quickly where you stand. To weigh the upside against the downside in one place, start with the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Methanex?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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