Matsui Securities (TSE:8628) Looks Pricey After Strong First Quarter Earnings

Why Matsui Securities’ latest earnings matter for investors

Matsui Securities (TSE:8628) reported first quarter earnings to June 30, 2026, with revenue of ¥17,299 million and net income of ¥5,609 million, compared with ¥11,407 million and ¥2,872 million a year earlier.

Basic earnings per share from continuing operations were ¥21.77 versus ¥11.16, while diluted earnings per share were ¥21.71 versus ¥11.14. These changes provide investors with updated figures to reassess Matsui Securities’ current share price and recent returns.

See our latest analysis for Matsui Securities.

The recent earnings release comes after a period of strong momentum for Matsui Securities, with a 19.89% 90 day share price return and a 53.51% total shareholder return over the past year. At the latest share price of ¥1,097, this earnings step up is keeping attention on how the stock’s recent strength lines up with the longer term record.

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After a sharp re rating following Matsui Securities’ latest results, the real debate now is whether most of the easy gains are already in the rear view mirror or if valuation still leaves meaningful upside ahead.

Price-to-earnings of 15.5x for Matsui Securities, is it justified?

Matsui Securities closed at ¥1,097, which lines up with a P/E of 15.5x that screens as expensive against several valuation checks and its peer group.

The P/E ratio compares the current share price to earnings per share. For a brokerage and capital markets business like Matsui Securities, this gives a quick read on how much investors are paying for each unit of current earnings.

Here, the stock is described as expensive on multiple fronts. The P/E of 15.5x is higher than the estimated fair P/E of 13.3x, and it also sits above both the JP Capital Markets industry average of 11.6x and the peer average of 12.2x. That points to a premium price where the market is already baking in stronger profitability or resilience than the wider group, even though earnings and revenue forecasts are described as growing but not significantly.

Against the industry and peer benchmarks, the gap is clear. Matsui Securities carries a higher P/E than the sector and than similar companies, and the fair ratio framework suggests a lower level that the valuation could move towards if sentiment or expectations cool.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Matsui Securities

Result: Price-to-earnings of 15.5x (OVERVALUED)

However, Matsui Securities still faces potential pressure if trading volumes soften or if competition in online brokerage forces lower pricing and squeezes margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Matsui Securities narrative.

Another view on Matsui Securities’ valuation

While the P/E screen suggests Matsui Securities is expensive, the SWS DCF model points in the same direction. At ¥1,097, the stock is trading above an estimated future cash flow value of ¥632.32, which implies limited margin for error if growth or profitability come in softer than expected.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Matsui Securities for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 19 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

The mix of stronger recent figures and a richer P/E for Matsui Securities leaves plenty of room for debate, so check the data yourself, weigh both sides of the story, and see the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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