Earnings Miss: Rigaku Holdings Corporation Missed EPS By 51% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Rigaku Holdings Corporation (TSE:268A), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its interim results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥40b revenue coming in 2.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥7.20 missed the mark badly, arriving some 51% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Rigaku Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥102.1b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 9.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 44% to JP¥58.87. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥102.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥60.72 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Rigaku Holdings
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,650, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rigaku Holdings at JP¥3,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,000. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rigaku Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Rigaku Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 21% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.9% per annum over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Rigaku Holdings is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Rigaku Holdings. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Rigaku Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Rigaku Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.